The second half of 2025 is glimpsed as a period marked by the intensification of international tensions and the consolidation of a fragmented global scenario, lacking effective leaders and with significant consequences for the economic and political order. The most recent geopolitical analysis is characterized by the absence of a dominant power capable of defining rules, guiding international cooperation and containing systemic risks. This drift towards international relief entails concrete impacts for North America, particularly for Mexico, the United States and Canada, whose deeply integrated economies face a series of challenges in foreign trade, institutional stability and industrial policy.
The reconfiguration of leadership in the United States, after Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, represents a turning point for regional balance. The unilateralist doctrine that takes strength again in Washington Socava Los Pilar of multilateralism and weakens the cooperation mechanisms previously driven from the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC). The threats of imposition of new generalized tariffs to goods from China, but also the reconsideration of commitments assumed with their American partners, introduce a high dose of commercial uncertainty. In addition to this, industrial policy decisions, such as selective relocation of supply chains or discriminatory subsidies in strategic sectors such as automotive or technological, directly affect the maneuver margins of Mexico and Canada within the framework of the trilateral commercial treaty.
In this environment, Mexico is facing a complex geoeconomic dilemma: on the one hand, it capitalizes its geographical position and the Nearshoring process as a way to attract investments and consolidate as a strategic partner of North America; On the other, it faces the risk of being trapped in an asymmetric subordination logic, in which the decisions taken in the United States redefine the map of opportunities without a structured dialogue. The absence of effective regional mechanisms to manage disputes, coordinate responses to global disruptions – such as those derived from prolonged conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the Taiwan Strait or instability in the Middle East – and establish a common integration strategy, reinforce this fragility.
Canada, meanwhile, has maintained a more aligned foreign policy with the rules of the liberal order, but also begins to resent the consequences of this loss of global leadership. Energy disputes with the United States, the pressure on their environmental policies and the commercial dependence of their exports to their southern neighbor place Ottawa in an uncomfortable position before the Washington protectionist turn. In this context, Canada explores new markets and alliances, but the growing fragmentation of the international system limits its maneuvering capacity.
Foreign trade, backbone of the Mexican economy, becomes sensitive terrain. Unilateral decisions on tariffs, changes in the rules of origin of the T-MEC, emerging non-tariff barriers and the politicization of issues such as labor or environmental compliance directly impact key sectors such as automotive, agribusiness and advanced manufacturing. In addition, the digitalization of trade and the regulation of disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence and cross -border data, require regional consensus that today seem distant in the absence of cooperative leadership.
The 2025 international environment forces to rethink national and regional strategies in economic integration, technological sovereignty and commercial diplomacy. For Mexico, the challenge is not only in adapting to an adverse environment, but in building its own voice that contributes to the rearticulation of more inclusive and sustainable regional leaderships. The second half of the year is presented as a window of opportunity to rethink the role of North America as an economic bloc in a world where strategic coordination can no longer be taken for granted.
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