Sudden temperature variations between extreme warm and cold, phenomena caused by climate change that negatively affect ecosystems and human health, have increased in frequency and intensity since 1961 and according to a new study they will continue to do so from here at the end of the century.
The research, published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications, warns that these sudden temperature changes, which consist of moving from extremely warm temperatures to others extremely cold or vice versa, will be increasingly common and will especially endanger low -income countries.
The study, conducted by scientists from Canada, China and the United States and led by the Chinese University of Guangzhou, provides that, due to the lack of time to adapt to sudden changes in temperature, these changes will amplify the negative effects of extreme heat and cold (droughts, cold drops, heat waves …) on human and animal health, infrastructure, vegetation and agriculture.
Although there are more and more studies on the independent climatic phenomena of extreme heat or cold, little is still known about the broader effects of rapid changes between them.
To better learn this phenomenon, Ming Luo, from the University of Guangzhou and his colleagues analyzed data of sudden temperature changes worldwide between 1961 and 2023.
The data were combined with climatic models and used to investigate long -term trends, as well as the future changes planned until the end of the 21st century in different climate change scenarios.
The team observed that more than 60% of the world regions included in the analysis have experienced an increase in frequency, intensity and transition speed of temperature changes since 1961.
The greatest increases were registered in Western Europe, South America, Africa and South and South Asia.
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Global warming will multiply sudden temperature changes worldwide
In addition, based on the five greenhouse gas emission scenarios drawn by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Group for Climate Change) for the world between 2050 and 2100, the team of scientists calculated how sudden temperature changes will behave.
Thus, for high emission scenarios (in which CO2 emissions continue to increase during the 21st century), the study provides that sudden temperature changes increase in intensity and duration between 2071 and 2100, and that the duration of transitions between the two ends decreases.
In these scenarios, the authors predict that the exposure of the world population to sudden changes in temperature could increase by more than 100% and that low -income countries would experience the greatest increase in exposure to sudden temperature changes, 4 to 6 times greater than the world average.
However, projections with medium-low emissions scenarios (in which emissions end up reducing) indicate that the increase in global exposure could be limited through actions to reduce global emissions and associated heating.
The report concludes that it is necessary to understand and mitigate the acceleration of sudden changes in threats under global warming to improve the ability to adapt to sudden changes in temperature worldwide, but even more in developing countries with large populations.
For Víctor Resco de Dios, Professor of Forestry Engineering at the University of Lleida (Northeast of Spain), the report scientifically demonstrates how “time is crazy”, a popular expression that summarizes the effects of climate change explains in statements to SMC Spain.
In addition, the study shows how this climatic volatility will increase, which can have dramatic consequences in agriculture (such as the flowering of species anticipated by heat or loss of crops due to a drastic temperature drop) and “serious effects on infrastructure.”
Xavier Rodó, ICREA Research Professor and Responsible for the Climate and Health Program of Isglobal, believes that the study “interesting, methodologically correct and well developed”, provides that sudden changes in temperature have consequences on human health, “an area that will deserve greater attention in the future,” he pointed to SMC Spain.
For Rodó, the only limitations of the study are only the simulations of the extremes in future scenarios, because the climatic models “are not so prepared as to simulate the average behavior of the climate,” he concluded.
With EFE information.
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