Goldman Sachs has once again dialed back expectations for stock returns in 2025 and now projects the S & P 500 will finish the year with a loss. Chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin lowered the firm’s year-end target on the S & P 500 to 5,700 from 6,200. The new target is just 2.1% above where the index closed on Friday, and is below where it began the year. The year-end projection of 5,700 also appears to be the lowest among major Wall Street firms, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey. “These estimates incorporate downward revisions to both earnings growth and valuations, reflecting a weaker base case economic growth backdrop, higher uncertainty, and higher recession risk,” Kostin said in a note to clients Sunday. The change comes less than a month after Goldman backed away from its original 2025 year-end target of 6,500. The updated forecast also comes alongside Goldman’s economics team raising odds of a recession . The S & P 500 entered Monday down about 5% year to date at 5,580.94. The stock market has suffered from some trades linked to the artificial intelligence boom losing steam and worries about tariffs weighing on other sectors, such as automakers. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has struggled in the first quarter of 2025.
