President Donald Trump announced on Nov. 14 that his administration is rolling back select tariffs on items including coffee, beef, cocoa and bananas, as he faces blowback for high grocery prices. But that doesn’t mean those prices are coming down anytime soon.
Consumer price relief will take time, according to supply chain management data and history.
The reason: inventories.
The food and commodities that have risen in price were purchased and imported under higher tariffs and stored in warehouses.
“Consumers haven’t seen the really big impact of any inflation yet because it is sitting in the ‘middle mile,'” also known as warehouses and distribution centers, said Zachary Rogers, lead author of the Logistics Managers’ Index and assistant professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University.
Retailers and logistics experts have already warned that the damage to operating margins has been done.
The inflation will be felt once those items are on store shelves, Rogers said.
Now these products are going onto store shelves, and retailers need to sell at higher prices to recoup costs.
“Supply chains do not react that quickly to pricing actions, whether from the president or organic fluctuations of market conditions,” said Phil Kafarakis, CEO of food industry association IFMA.
Based on the supply chain pressures of the Covid pandemic, including the blockage of the Suez Canal by the Evergiven, it takes around six months for prices to increase, and another six months for prices to go down once the disruptions are resolved.
The combination of supply chain pressures and soaring logistics prices contributed to the “transitory inflation,” according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
“Tariff-induced inflation will take a long time to become clear,” Powell said in the July Fed rate decision press conference.
The tariffs that were rolled back are those characterized by the White House as “reciprocal” tariffs.
“The 10 percent to 40 percent reduction of markup on prices due to tariffs will only improve the margins over the long term of the intermediaries that produce, harvest, transport, market, and sell food to consumers,” said Kafarakis.
“The effects of this executive order will not be felt by consumers for an extended period of time,” he said.
“We might see some relief for tomatoes and strawberries in the spring,” he said.
Consumers may see some items, such as coffee and cheese, go on sale to create consumer attention and drive foot traffic, but “for a limited time or in limited quantities,” Kafarakis said.
Brazil, which provides 30% of the U.S. coffee supply, is the leading coffee importer by volume to the U.S. The country’s tariff was rolled back by 10%, leaving the existing International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, tariff of 40%.
The expectations of lower tariffs on select food categories will be helpful for the restaurant industry, Kafarakis said. The price relief will help offset the economic challenges facing them with consumer demand.
“But unfortunately, consumers will continue to struggle with higher prices,” he said.
“The restaurant industry will work to increase traffic,” he said. “We’ll see promotions and discounting on some items.”
Economists caution there is no guarantee that prices will return to previous lower levels even after inventories are exhausted and replenished.
“In Q3 earnings reports, I did hear about many companies that are still making price adjustments (aka raising prices), as they manage their tariff-induced higher cost structure,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at OnePoint Wealth Advisers.
“Even if the president loses his ability to use IEEPA for broad tariff policy, companies will still be on high alert for what might replace it with the sectional tariffs,” Boockvar said.
Trump also exempted cocoa and select beef imports from the higher tariffs.
Cocoa inventories are priced high because of the combination of tariffs and smaller crop size due to drought.
Beef prices are also high for several reasons, not only because of the tariffs.
Brazilian beef is now tariffed at 40% because of the IEEPA tariffs. Before Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, Brazil was the largest supplier of beef to the U.S.
The 10% tariffs on imports of beef from Australia, Argentina and Uruguay were removed, as was the 15% tariff on New Zealand’s beef imports.
“I think most notable has been the tariffs on Brazilian and Argentinian beef, among all the others,” Boockvar said.
“It’s politically easy to slap tariffs on foreign competitors to defend domestic producers, but the consumer usually ends up paying the cost,” he said. “Demand then shrinks, they eat chicken instead, and the domestic producers end up no better off.”
Other issues — such as the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 74 years and the parasitic ringworm outbreak in Mexico, which has resulted in a U.S. ban on all Mexican beef — continue to pressure beef prices.
The ripple effects of other tariffs are another reason food inflation overall will not abate immediately with these tariff rollbacks.
The increase in Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% has raised the prices of canned goods and machinery.
For example, NielsenIQ data on the prices of Thanksgiving food items show a leap in the average unit price for canned cranberry sauce, from $2.02 in November 2024 to $2.52 in October 2025. Aluminum used to make cans is subject to duties under the 232 tariff.
Retailers such as Walmart, Target, Aldi and Kroger have been promoting the affordability aspect of their Thanksgiving meal bundles.
Those with knowledge of the Walmart meal strategy and makeup tell CNBC the bundle this year contains 30% less product and that some brand-name products were substituted with items from its private label to keep costs lower.
CNBC asked NielsenIQ to review the prices of popular Thanksgiving items featured in the holiday meal bundles at Walmart.
The data shows that nearly half of the 20 items included for Thanksgiving side dishes had higher prices and lower sales between Oct. 6 and Nov. 1, compared with the same period in 2024.
In addition to canned cranberry sauce, cream of mushroom soup is also up.
Pecan pies are up, by 15%.
Prices for turkeys are also up.
The U.S. turkey flock has dropped to its lowest size in nearly 40 years because of the highly pathogenic avian influenza, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
Some imported fertilizers have faced double-digit tariffs, which have raised the cost of growing crops needed to produce animal feed.
The tariff rollback fact sheet the White House released Friday said some fertilizers will no longer be subject to tariffs.
