BBVA Mexico adjusted its growth forecast for the country’s economy in 2025, by anticipating an expansion of 0.7%, due to favorable performance in the first semester, although in the face of uncertainty for commercial policy with the United States.
In the presentation of the ‘Situation Mexico’ report, in the Mexican capital, the financial entity also advanced a recovery around 2026, with a growth of 1%.
Before BBVA Mexico anticipated a 0.4% growth for the end of the year and 1.2% for the next.
Arnulfo Rodríguez, the main economist of BBVA Mexico, explained that the country’s domestic demand is slowing down significantly, coupled with a drop in consumption and investment.
This projection coincides with that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which raised the Mexican GDP growth prognosis for this year to 1%.
“We will be growing below the potential rate in the following years, the reason is that we are facing a context of uncertainty much higher than normal, first by the redesign of the judicial system in Mexico and then for the commercial policy of the United States,” Carlos Serrano, chief economist of BBVA Mexico, said in press conference.
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He pointed out that internal consumption is weakened, while the labor market has stagnated, although it shows some stability, due to the weak dynamics of formal employment
He added that the deflationary process continues its course and projected that the general inflation will close the year by 3.8% and that in 2026 the process of disinflation and inflation will end will enter a new stage, placing itself below the historical average observed from the adoption of the 3% goal.
He also anticipated two additional cuts to the interest rate, which could end 2025 in 7% and reach 6% in 2026, arguing that “there is a space for the Bank of Mexico to continue taking the rate towards a more neutral posture.”
Fiscal consolidation will slowly advance
In the fiscal scope, Rodríguez explained that after knowing the proposal of the economic package 2026, the fiscal consolidation will slowly advance.
This, due to factors such as the increase in social programs, supports Pemex from the federal government, public pensions, debt service and the little margin of tax collection growth without fiscal reform.
“The federal government will most likely have to make adjustments to programmable spending to generate public deficits around 2% of GDP and thus prevent public debt (% of GDP) from resume its upward trajectory, which will represent a complex challenge of fiscal policy,” he said.
In that sense, he reiterated that it is necessary to make a fiscal reform that allows the tax collection to be raised by attacking the problems of informality of the Mexican economy.
With EFE information.
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