The Nasdaq Composite index finally made a new all-time high on Friday, its first since July. But history shows there may be more than 10% upside ahead as stocks enter the third year of a bull market, according to DataTrek statistics. DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe said they “remain bullish” on U.S. large-cap tech stocks because the average third year of a bull market has brought an increase of just 4.4% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the firm’s data shows. But that rally jumps to 13% when looking only at years without major shocks. In some instances, investors saw gains of as much as 20% in those third years. .IXIC 5Y mountain The Nasdaq Composite over the past 5 years The only caveat is that outcome assumes no major shake-ups to the economic or geopolitical backdrop. Yet, an outcome that relies on no geopolitical or economic disturbances is impossible to predict, especially as the U.S. heads toward a tight presidential election whose outcome may get drawn out due to the rise of absentee voting. What’s more, conflicts in the Middle East and Europe continue to threaten the global status quo and have occasionally led to volatility spikes in the market. The data, too, shows that another positive year for Nasdaq is no sure-fire bet. A two-year bull market after a losing year, the pattern we are currently in since the 2022 debacle, has continued into a third year just 60% of the time since 1971. Still, the Nasdaq has been able to rise despite the challenges thus far. The most-recent milestone came when the index touched that new intraday record on Friday, its first since July.
