Middle East is a region of intense beauty and ancient kingdoms. He has also repeatedly supported periods of geopolitical instability throughout many centuries.
Today, geopolitical, socio -political and religious tensions persist. The world is observing how long -standing regional tensions reach a critical point in the shocking and growing conflict between Israel and Iran.
The world air industry has a special interest in how these tensions develop. This airspace is a crucial corridor that joins Europe, Asia and Africa.
At present, Middle East houses several of the world’s largest international airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways. The bases of operations of these airlines, Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, respectively, have become fundamental centers of international aviation.
Maintaining the safety of passengers will be the top priority of all airlines. What could mean an escalation of conflict for both airlines and travelers?
Security is the first
History shows that the civil airline industry and military conflict are not mixed. On July 3, 1988, the USS Vincennes, a warship of the American Navy, fired two Earth-Aire missiles and demolished flight 655 of Iran Air, an international passenger service on the Persian Gulf.
More recently, on July 17, 2014, Malaysian Airlines MH17 was shot down on East Ukraine while the battle between the Ukrainian forces and the Prorruse separatists continued.
It is understandable that global airlines are very reluctant to risk when it comes to military conflicts. The International Civil Aviation Organization requires airlines to implement and maintain an operational security management system (SMS).
One of the main concerns – known as “pillars” – of the SMS is “security risk management.” This includes the processes to identify hazards, evaluate risks and implement risk mitigation strategies.
The risk management departments of the airlines that travel through the Middle East region will have been working hard in these strategies.
Route recalculation
The most immediate and obvious evidence that such strategies are being implemented are the changes in the aircraft routes, either canceling or suspending flights or making changes in flight plans. This is to ensure that aircraft avoid airspace where military conflicts are exploding.
At the time of writing this article, a quick look at the Flightradar24 flight monitoring website shows that world air traffic avoids the airspace of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Jordan, Palestine and Lebanon. Ukraine airspace is also devoid of air traffic.
You may be interested: Putin admits that he fears a new World War for the situation in Ukraine and Iran
The change of route, however, creates its own challenges. The condensation of the traffic path in smaller and congested areas can push the aircraft to and on areas that are not necessarily equipped to deal with such a large increase in traffic.
Having more aircraft in a smaller amount of safe airspace creates challenges for air traffic control services and pilots operating aircraft.
More time and fuel
Avoiding conflict zones is one of the most visible risks management of airlines. This can add time to the duration of a planned flight, which generates greater fuel consumption and other logistics challenges. This will be added to the operating costs of the airlines.
There will be no impact on the cost of tickets already bought. But if instability in the region continues, we may see an increase in aerial ticket prices.
It is not just the fact of avoiding airspace in the region that could exert upward pressure on the cost of flights. Passenger airplanes work with Jet-A1 fuel, produced from oil.
If Iran closes the Ormuz Strait, the “most important oil transit bottleneck in the world”, this could make the cost of oil, and in turn the Jet-A1, increase significantly. The increase in fuel costs will be transferred to the passenger you pay. However, some experts believe that such movement is unlikely.
An important center
The main Middle East Aviation Centers provide greater global connectivity, allowing passengers to travel without problems among continents.
The increase in regional instability has the potential to disturb this world connectivity. In the case of a prolonged conflict, airlines operating in the region and their surroundings can find that they have greater insurance costs. Over time, these costs would be transferred to consumers through higher prices of tickets.
Passenger trust
Worldwide, airlines and governments are issuing warnings and travel warnings. The traveling public has the responsibility of being informed about changes in the state of flights and possible delays.
These warnings and notices can cause a drop in the confidence of the passengers, which in turn can lead to a drop in reserves both towards the region.
Until the increase in instability in the Middle East, global passenger traffic figures by air were higher than the numbers prior to the pandemic. Strong growth had been predicted in the coming decades.
Anything that results in a fall in passenger confidence could negatively impact these figures, which would lead to slower growth and affect the profitability of airlines.
In spite of the disasters of great repercussion, aviation remains the safest form of transport. As the airlines face these challenges, they will constantly work to keep safe flights and recover the confidence of the passengers in this unpredictable situation.
*Natasha Heap is director of the Aviation Bachelor Program at the University of Southern Queensland.
This article was originally published in The Conversation/Reuters
