Who wins the presidential election and which party overtakes Congress could have some major implications for markets, but the outlook for tech stocks may not be as clear as investors hope. For months, analysts have weighed the prospect of higher corporate taxes if Vice President Kamala Harris were to win the election. They have also considered the impact of potential tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. “Investors are faced with a choice,” Roger McNamee, founder of Elevation Partners said Monday on CNBC’s ” Squawk on the Street .” “On the one hand, you have Harris — who represents a continuation of the economic policies that [helped] create the strongest economic growth of any developed country since the pandemic, but has also combined that with much more rigorous antitrust enforcement,” he said. “Contrast that with Trump, who is offering a very different vision.” .IXIC YTD mountain Tech-heavy Nasdaq performance this year Megacap technology companies have soared to new heights in recent months as investors amp up bets on the artificial intelligence trade. However, those gains have come with some hurdles, including a summer sell-off as sentiment dampened over the payoff from AI. Antitrust and regulatory concerns Investors have kept a close eye on difficulties tech giants are facing as they grow and stoke regulators’ concerns around antitrust issues. For instance, in August a judge ruled that Google has a monopoly in internet search. The Justice Department indicated in October that a possible breakup of the company could be an antitrust remedy. Some on Wall Street view a Harris win as a potential obstacle for antitrust and megacap technology stocks. “Regulatory scrutiny will probably help a lot of M & A activity under Trump — Harris, it’ll be a little more of the status quo,” said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “We already have a roadmap with her, and in this campaign she hasn’t really done much to say, ‘I’m going to change anything drastically.'” According to McNamee, heightened antitrust scrutiny could “unlock a lot of value for investors that currently is stuck inside these companies.” Chip stocks and tariffs Wall Street is also eyeing the semiconductor industry, a critical sector that could be affected by the outcome of the election. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya notes that the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index has outperformed the S & P 500 on average by 51% and 38% under a Democrat and Republican president, respectively. Trump has already hinted at potential tariffs on the industry. He also called out Taiwan in particular, accusing the country of stealing America’s chip industry during a recent interview with Joe Rogan. .SOX YTD mountain Semiconductor index year to date Analysts view this as one of the biggest potential risks for the sector that could hit popular names operating in the PC, server and memory chip markets, Arya said. This could include companies such as Advanced Micro Devices , Qualcomm , Nvidia , and Broadcom . Trump has floated a rate of up to 20% on imports across the board and a 60% tariff on imports from China. “In the case of a full-blown tariff installment, we expect IT hardware vendors to eat up some of the increased costs, but still increase the price of their products considerably (0-60%?), a potential headwind to overall units,” Arya wrote. Under a Harris administration, the impact to semiconductors could come in the form of higher corporate tax rates. So far, Trump has hinted at tax cuts for certain companies , while Harris has proposed boost the rate to 28% from today’s level of 21%. Nvidia, Texas Instruments , Intel and Qualcomm are among the lower-tax rate beneficiaries at risk if Harris were to boost the rate. If Harris were to win, “For semis, there would likely be ongoing federal support and incentives for domestic production, while maintaining export controls and investment screening for Chinese firms,” wrote Ed Mills, managing director and Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. Share buybacks Beyond semiconductors, Bank of America’s Brad Sills also noted a potentially higher tax rate on share repurchases under Harris could heighten tax liabilities for big buyback names such as Microsoft , Oracle and Salesforce . The Harris camp is proposing a hike to 4% from 1%. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin year-to-date performance For artificial intelligence, Raymond James’ Mills thinks a Harris administration could lead to more focus on AI safety, ethics and consumer safeguards. Meanwhile, a Trump victory could culminate in limited oversight and a “potential rollback” of reporting requirements, he said. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives views Trump’s proposed tariffs and harsher view on China as a hurdle for supply chains. This could “slow the pace of the AI revolution,” he said in a recent post to X that also called a Harris win “more bullish” for the industry. Some investors also view Tesla as a likely winner under a Trump administration, given CEO Elon Musk’s close ties to the former president. Investors have already come to view it as a proxy for a Trump win, with shares up 28% over the last three months, and that could continue, said Freedom Capital’s Woods. Trump’s supportive approach to cryptocurrencies could boost prices and benefit names such as Robinhood and Coinbase , noted Wolfe Research’s Chris Senyek. Cryptocurrency stocks rallied during Tuesday’s trading session.
