If your morning cannot start without coffee, you are in good company. The world drinks around 2,000 million coffee cups a day. However, a European Union Law (EU) could soon affect their favorite coffee beans and farmers who cultivate them.
From 2026, companies that sell coffee in the EU market will have to demonstrate that their product is “deforestation free.” That means that each grain bag, each bottle of ground coffee and each espresso capsule must be traced to coffee plants in lands that have not been forest talled since December 31, 2020.
The new rules, which are known as the EU deforestation regulations, are part of a broader effort to ensure that European consumption does not boost global deforestation.
However, on the ground, from the coffee makers of Ethiopia to the plantations of Brazil, the change of rules could transform the way in which it is cultivated, markets and sells coffee.
Why does the EU focus on deforestation?
Deforestation is one of the main drivers of the loss of biodiversity and represents about 10% of global greenhouse gases emissions. And coffee plantations, together with the production of cocoa, soybeans and palm oil, which are also covered by new regulations, are known sources of forest loss in some countries.
According to the new EU deforestation regulation, companies must track their coffee until their exact origin, to the farm of the farm where the grains were grown, and provide geolocation data and documentation of custody of the supply chain to the EU authorities.
They will also have to show evidence, often through satellite images, that any open land where coffee is grown was forest free before the deadline of 2020.
Initially, the rules would enter into force in early 2025, but were delayed after the complaints of many countries. The governments and industrial groups of Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia warned of commercial friction for small farms, and the World Trade Organization has received complaints about the regulations.
Most companies must now meet before December 30, 2025. Small businesses have until June 30, 2026.
Possible winners and losers
The coffee supply chain is complex. The grains are cultivated by millions of farmers, sold to collectors and then pass through processors, exporters, importers and toaster before reaching the supermarket shelves. Adding EU rules means more control points, more paperwork and possibly new strategies to obtain coffee beans.
Little farms, in particular, could be vulnerable to losing business when the new rules enter into force. They could lose contracts or access to the market if they cannot provide GPS coordinates at the plot level and non -deforestation documentation that buyers will require. That could lead to buyers to change towards larger or organized cooperatives that can provide documentation.
If a farm cannot provide precise coordinates of the plot or pay for mapping services, it could end up being excluded from the world’s largest coffee market.
Larger coffee producers who already use systems that can track grains to specific agricultural plots could obtain a competitive advantage.
The new regulations also include more strict supervision for countries that are considered more likely to allow deforestation, which could slow down the trade of these regions. As a result, buyers can change to regions with lower risk of deforestation.
Even outside Europe, it is likely that the big buyers prioritize the grains that can track non -deforested plots, which could leave small farms that cannot provide tests at the plot level. That could reduce availability and increase the price of some types of coffee and get the business farms. In some cases, EU regulations could redirect undocumented coffee beans such as the US.
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Helping small farms to succeed
For small farms, success under the new EU standards will depend on access to technical support and low -cost tools to trace the origin of its cultivation. Some countries are developing national systems to track deforestation and are pressing the EU to invest more in helping them.
Those small farms that can comply with the rules, often through cooperatives, could become low -risk attractive suppliers for large buyers looking for compatible crops.
The change could also promote the demand for sustainability certifications, such as Rainforest Alliance, 4c Common Code or Fairtrade, which certify only products that do not contribute to deforestation. But even certified farms must still provide precise location data.
The potential of agrosilviculture
Arabica coffee, the most common variety that is sold worldwide, naturally evolved as a bush of the undergrowth, and behaves better in colder tropical lands with good drainage and, often, partial shadow. That points to a way in which farmers can reduce the risk of deforestation while they continue to cultivate coffee: agrosilviculture.
Agrosilvicultura involves planting or preserving shadow trees inside and around coffee plots to keep the canopy of the trees.
In agroforestry systems, shadow trees can cushion heat and drought, often reducing soil evaporation and moderating the water stress of plants. Several field studies show lower losses due to evaporation and complementary use of water between coffee and shadow trees. In some contexts, this can reduce irrigation needs and demand for fertilizers. Practical tools such as the World Coffee Research Shadow Catalog help farmers to choose the appropriate tree species for their location and objectives.
Agrosilvicultura is common in Ethiopia, where Arabica originated, and in parts of Central America, thanks to the long traditions of coffee cultivation in shade and the special demand of the products.
However, according to the new EU standards, even these farms must demonstrate that no forest was talked after 2020.
Why is this important for coffee drinkers?
For European coffee drinkers, the new EU standards promise a more sustainable coffee. But they can also mean higher prices if compliance costs are transferred to consumers through the supply chain.
For coffee lovers in other places, changes in world commercial flows could change where the grains are sold and what price. As EU buyers offer grains that can be traced to non -deforested plots, more of those “totally verified” coffees will flow to Europe. American toasts can face higher prices or a more tight offer for traceable lots, while unseeded grains are discounted or simply avoided by brands that choose to follow EU standards.
*Paul Mwebaze is a research economist at the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment of the University of Illinois in Urbano-Champaign.
This article was originally published in The Conversation/Reuters
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