The U.S. government shutdown that began on Oct. 1 is now more than a month old — and it’s closing in on the record for longest shutdown ever. How long will it last, and what does it mean for investors?
How long will the shutdown last? Bettors think it could be a while
At the time of writing, the Senate has voted 13 times on resolutions to reopen the government, so far without success. It’s currently the second-longest government shutdown in U.S. history, only behind the 35-day shutdown lasting from December 2018 into January 2019.
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, currently shows an 81% chance that the shutdown will last until at least Nov. 8, and a 48% chance it will last until at least Nov. 16. Either of those scenarios would make it the longest shutdown in history.
How has the market performed during previous shutdowns?
Below is a table showing the S&P 500 index’s returns during every federal government shutdown that has lasted more than one week.
|
S&P 500 return during shutdown |
S&P 500 return in month after shutdown |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Dec. 16, 1995 – Jan. 6, 1996 (21 days) |
||
|
Oct. 1, 2013 – Oct. 17, 2013 (17 days) |
||
|
Dec. 22, 2018 – Jan. 25, 2019 (35 days) |
||
|
Oct. 1, 2025 – present (34 days, ongoing) |
Sources: Yahoo Finance and Congress.gov. Returns are based on opening prices on the first business day of each period and closing prices on the last business day. Data is current as of Nov. 3, 2025, and is intended for informational purposes only.
Bottom line: What the shutdown means for investors
Of the three previous shutdowns that have lasted more than a week, two have had positive returns during the shutdown, and all three have had positive returns in the month after the shutdown.
It’s too early to predict what the market will do after the end of the current shutdown — no one knows how long it’ll last, after all. But history suggests that there’s no reason for long-term investors to change course because of a shutdown. And if you’re not currently invested in index funds, now may be as good a time as any to buy them if you’re investing for the long term.
