Albany Times Union/hearst Newspapers | Hearst Newspapers | Getty Images
A deeper dip into consumer wallets this holiday season is expected to last through Thanksgiving and Christmas, and it is already being seen in the Halloween product market.
DataWeave, which analyzes SKUs (stock keeping units), a scannable code retailers use to identify and track a product, says it has seen big price hikes among relatively inexpensive Halloween items, led by pumpkin carving-related products. Pumpkin Masters, the popular pumpkin carving company that offers a wide range of carving and decorating kits, topped the list in the percentage of price increases, with year over year increases as high as 300%.
According to customs agents who have reviewed the products, which are made in China, and calculated the approximate tariff costs for CNBC, the tariff burden paid by importers or Signature Brands ranged between 58.1%-59.6%. Nunzio De Filippis, a tariff mitigation expert and licensed customs broker, noted that at these levels, the importer is now paying tariffs and fees which are more than half the product’s value.
Joe Ens, CEO of Signature Brands, which owns Pumpkin Masters — in addition to Betty Crocker, Paas, Cake Mate, Gift Pop, and Brand Castle — tells CNBC that while the lion’s share of the cake decorating business is domestically manufactured and produced in Ocala, Florida, Pumpkin Masters and Paas are 100% made in China. The company’s products were subject to the first trade war in 2018, but this time around, he says the increase in tariffs has made it hard to keep prices at original levels.
“I think with the scale of tariffs that we’re talking about here, it’s hard to imagine supply chains domestically absorbing that much tariff,” said Ens. “Frankly, it’s the retailers who make the final pricing decision when all is said and done.”
According to SKU analysis by DataWeave, the biggest increase among lower-priced holiday items was the Pumpkin Masters Xtreme Strobe Light White, with a retail price increase of a whopping 331%. In 2024, the same light, which is inserted into the pumpkin to illuminate it, retailed at $1.62, a price that has been consistent going back to 2022. In 2025, the product is retailing at $6.99.
Retailers have been discounting the item heavily from the list price, and it is selling. According to Kroger’s website, the product was initially listed at $6.99 but was later reduced to $3.49. It was marked sold out. Even with the discount, the price increased by 115.4%
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Ens said even with the price increase, consumer demand remains strong. “Pumpkin carving is an annual tradition that we think they want to preserve. It’s such a cherished consumer behavior that for a pumpkin carving kit that’s less than $6 people are not going to radically change,” he said.
Ens said Signature Brands has become more familiar with consumer behavior in reaction to price increases on holiday items. Last Easter, for example, the cost of eggs was a key challenge. “It’s kind of the same relationship where the cost of the activity increased,” Ens said.
Other Pumpkin Master products were also listed at much higher prices this year.
At regional grocer Giant Eagle, Pumpkin Masters Contest Winners Pattern Book was up 330%; Pumpkin Masters Fright Light Kit was up 302%; and Pumpkin Master Carving Party Kit was up 302%.
Kroger is also selling Pumpkin Masters Jack O Lantern Teeth, up 283%; and Pumpkin Masters Masters Collection, up 214%.
Pick and Save, which is a part of Kroger, has also listed similar items at increases over 100%.
Kroger and Giant Eagle did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment on pricing strategy.
William George, director of research at ImportGenius, said a review of the bills of lading, receipts detailing freight shipments to the U.S., shows that shipment levels of pumpkin carving tools have been largely flat over the past three years. Other shipments containing cauldron, skeleton, or tombstones in the product description are up. “I think the real takeaways are that Halloween-labeled shipments are slightly down, and that Halloween costume-labeled shipments are down significantly,” said George.
“A good chunk of our business is direct import, so our retail partners assume control overseas, so there’s been a little bit of a decrease in inventory brought in, just under the assumption that there might be moderated consumer terms,” Ens said.
Signature Brands has looked at reshoring manufacturing for both Pumpkin Masters and Paas, which makes popular Easter products, but Ens said it would be very difficult to be competitive based on labor costs in other markets, and for products made with injectable molds.
Seasonal items like Pumpkin Masters and Paas are usually planned a year in advance of the holiday.
“We’re in the midst of trying to define our demand for 2026 and we will see how this season goes,” Ens said. “While the increases are not desirable for this kind of once a year purchase, people are investing in a tradition with their grandkids or their kids, and we expect velocity to be just as strong as the past.”
The National Retail Federation forecasts that Halloween spending will hit a record $114 per person this year, but that is likely a function of higher prices across the board.
“Prices are increasing across related categories, including costumes, candy, and pumpkin carving tools, as retailers deal with global uncertainty and work to manage the impact and total price passed on to consumers,” said Lauren Murphy, managing director, Wells Fargo Retail Finance.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point Wealth Advisors, said the increase in prices from lower-cost items on up will have an overall impact on the consumer. For example, in addition to pumpkin carving products, candy for Halloween is also up 10.8%, nearly four times the overall inflation compared to last year, according to the Century Foundation.
“The period from Halloween to Christmas will be a huge test of the American consumer’s tolerance of tariffs as it will be right in front of their financial face in the coming months,” he said. “The problem with tariffs for a trade deficit country such as the U.S., where we import much more than we export, blanket tariffs on just about everything is like water filtering into every crack in terms of households and businesses having to eat most of it,” Boockvar said.
