(EFE) .- HSBC Mexico foresees a challenging environment for the national economy in the face of global uncertainty derived from commercial and geopolitical tensions, especially by the United States trade war, although local factors that could mitigate the negative effects, as its general director, Jorge Arce, indicated on Monday.
“In the first quarter, in general for the industry, we have done well to the banks. In the wholesale banks we are growing in general. Portfolios maintain a very significant health that is worth mentioning,” explained the president of the Board of Directors of HSBC Mexico.
Arce stressed that Mexico maintains “important anchors”, including a “prudent budget”, stability in public finances, and a peso appreciated against the dollar.
“Yes we see that, in general, the economy is slowing down, it will not help us global uncertainty, but on the other hand we have an important and positive anchors,” he emphasized.
However, he acknowledged that there are “winds against” related to world economic uncertainty, consumption cooling and the beginning of a new administration in Mexico, which traditionally implies delays in public investment.
Regarding consumption, he acknowledged that although it has lower levels than last year, this indicator remains with growth that helps mitigate the impacts of uncertainty.
Lee: Mexico loses more than 47,000 formal jobs in April
“If you see the part of consumption, although growth has decreased significantly against last year we continue to grow in consumption,” he said.
“The worst that can happen to an economy is uncertainty”
Arce explained that factors such as high remittances, full employment and social support had promoted consumption in recent years, but those stimuli are now stagnating.
HSBC maintains in 0.2% its expectation of economic growth for Mexico in 2025, similar to the consensus reached by private sector specialists who cut that figure their growth expectations for the Mexican economy, from 0.5%, in the most recent survey of the Bank of Mexico.
Faced with this, the Mexican government maintains more optimistic forecasts, with an estimated expansion for this year between 1.5% and 2.3%, according to the Treasury.
Arce commented that Mexico’s deceleration is not exclusive and has reached the whole world, especially its main commercial partner: United States.
“Yes, a slowdown is seen, not only in Mexico, but throughout the world. Our main commercial partner is slowing down much faster than we expected and, in general, other latitudes, Europe, Asia, even China are slowing down,” he said.
The general director of HSBC Mexico insisted that the main factor is indecision about policies, since he said that “the worst that can happen to an economy is uncertainty” in the face of the aggressive protectionism promoted by Washington.
Does not rule out a technical recession in Mexico
Arce ruled out a crisis, although he warned that a technical recession, with two quarters of negative growth, is not out of the radar, added to the fall in private investment and a slow start to public investment.
Lee: Mexico inflation advanced to 3.9% in April: Survey
Despite the context, HSBC plans its greatest historical investment in Mexico during 2025: “We have never invested as much as we are going to invest this year in Mexico,” he said.
Priorities include the improvement of branches, digital infrastructure, cybersecurity and artificial intelligence tools to prevent financial crimes and improve customer experience.
With EFE information
Inspy, discover and share. Follow us and find what you are looking for on our Instagram!
