The former Secretary of Economy, Ildefonso Guajardo, said that President Donald Trump is “as disruptive as predictable”, so he considered “a good game” by President Claudia Sheinbaum the postponement of tariffs to Mexico, although he pointed out that now The Republican sits negotiations with “the tariff gun loaded.”
“It comes recharged, very self -sufficient, ‘it is better for the world to find out that there is a new boss.’ But Trump is still the same: he is the most disruptive individual I know, but at the same time the most predictable, ”he said in an interview with Efe about the second term of the New York tycoon.
Guajardo knows Trump well, since he was the negotiator chief during the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieto of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC) signed in 2018, in the first presidency of the Republican (2017-2021).
The conversation in the Mexican capital occurs just a few days after the negotiations to Sheinbaum’s counterreloj with Trump after the American threat of imposing tariffs on Mexico of 25%.
In the last minute, both leaders reached an agreement by which Trump postponed the tariffs for a month in exchange for Mexico to send 10,000 military personnel to the common border to stop irregular migration and fentanyl traffic, a powerful opioid that has caused A public health crisis in the United States.
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“The postponement was a good game of President Sheinbaum, but the problem is now that Trump sits at the negotiating table with the loaded tariff gun,” Guajardo warned.
In his opinion, the commercial pressures by Washington will continue, since with “the level of egocentrism” of the US president in a mandate without re -election, it is about “building her legacy as a watershed in the history of the United States.”
“Trump will continue with uncertainty, because in his head he believes that generating uncertainty discourages companies to stop investing in Mexico and do so in the United States,” Guajardo said.
However, Guajardo indicated that it is still thought that he will not impose tariffs now.
“Because not only a bullet would be spent, the complete gunpowder is spent,” he said.
Tariffs concern Mexico for being the largest commercial partner in the United States, with a value of exports to that country of 490.183 million dollars in 2023, almost 30% of Mexican GDP, according to a report by the Mexican Institute of Competitiveness (IMCO) .
There is absence of professional Trump cabinet profiles
For Guajardo, one of the main problems compared to the 2018 negotiations is the absence of professional and technical experience in the new US presidential cabinet.
Specifically, the presence of Robert Lighthizer is missing, who was the United States negotiating chief at that time, with whom he had friction but “he could talk.”
“When you negotiate, you want a professional at the table, not someone who thinks like you. When you see them with an individual who does not understand the or by the round, it is disastrous. You don’t know what to ask for, ”he said.
On the Mexican part, Guajardo, 67, showed his concern that “there is no good and bad police.”
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“In 2018, Luis Videgaray (Chancellor) was the good police and I the bad. Redesigning that interlocution is important. Sheinbaum has centralized the process too much in it, and that is not healthy because you fall very short, you must have a team in the process, ”said the economist.
In the event that the tariffs by Washington are finally completed, Guajardo recommended returning the coup strategically.
“Do not respond with the same tariffs, reciprocal. As we did in 2018, hitting all those who voted for Trump, the most republican districts, to the ‘corn belt’, to the producers of pigs, dairy, chicken. We have to give products that we can replace. It would be crazy to answer him in cars and auto parts, ”Guajardo settled.
Mexico represents 43% of the total auto parts purchases that the United States makes worldwide, and in 2023 exported more than 3 million vehicles to the country.
In fact, the largest car manufacturers in the world, including Americans as General Motors and Ford, are installed in Mexico, so that, before being completed, auto parts cross the border several times, so they would see their businesses especially affected If a tariff war is unleashed.
With EFE information
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