The Mexican economy could fall more than 1.2 percent in 2025, if the imposition of the 30 percent tariff on exports announced by Donald Trump progresses, Héctor Amaya Estrella, president of the Mexican Institute of Public Accountants (IMCP).
“This measure (tariff) could cause a drop of up to 1.2 percent of the national gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025, a brake on foreign direct investment and direct effects on formal employment,” said the public accountant.
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In addition, it will generate a negative reaction in financial markets, with pressure on the exchange rate and an increase in the perception of country risk of Mexico, said the business representative.
The border and industrial areas of the Mexican Republic will have problems in the generation of formal employment due to the imposition of the Mexican exports tariff.
The United States government announced the imposition of a 30 percent tariff to all imports from Mexico, which will enter into force on August 1, 2025.
The measure, communicated by official letter addressed to President Claudia Sheinbaum, “represents a unilateral turn that has generated great concern in the economic, productive and diplomatic sectors,”
Héctor Amaya Estrella said that the rates respond to an alleged lack of cooperation from Mexico in combating fentanyl trafficking and organized crime, as well as the threat of Mexican exports to the United States.
“This new tariff replaces the previous one of 25 percent and will generalize in a key sectors of the Mexican economy,” said IMCP president.
Among the most beaten sectors is the automotive, which represents more than 25 percent of Mexican exports to the United States, as well as agri -food, with products such as avocado, tomato, berries and meat.
There will also be an affectation to the manufacturing and electronic industry, highly integrated in North American supply chains, as well as textile and clothing, particularly vulnerable to cost variations and demand.
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The Government of Mexico has expressed its absolute rejection of Mexican exports tariffs, since, he said, it is a unilateral action.
The Mexican authorities have initiated consultations with their TMEC partners to evaluate legal actions and commercial defense mechanisms.
“In parallel, support strategies are being designed to mitigate the impacts on the most vulnerable sectors, in coordination with the private sector,” concluded the president of the IMCP.
