Banks, international organizations, economist, analysts and stock market houses anticipate that the Mexican economy could enter into economic recession in 2025, due to the collection of tariffs by the United States government, headed by Donald Trump, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) warned.
“For the first time, 4 of the respondents reported expectations of negative growth, while 30 calculate growth less than 1 percent,” said Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, president of IMEF.
The manager explained that the current environment of imposition of tariffs at approximately half of the amount exported by Mexico to the United States adds to the discouragement of investment that was observed last year with the approval of the reforms, particularly the judicial and that of the autonomous organisms.
“To persist the application of tariffs to Mexican products that are exported to the United States, they will generate more distortions to the economy that will most likely cause reviews to their growth expectation;
Approximately half of Mexican exports are already paying tariffs of 25 percent and that percentage can fluctuate until April 2, when it will be known what is coming, he pointed out for his part, Víctor Manuel Herrera Espinosa, president of the National Committee of Economic Studies of IMEF.
With tariffs at this level, the Free Trade Agreement is inoperable, so hopefully it can be reversed in the short term or see the new conditions to the future, said the economist.
The OECD, the UBS Bank and the Brooklyn Institute have made estimates based on the application of reciprocal tariffs, he said.
“Most of the studies that are three or four focus on approximately a contraction of 1 percent and 1.5 percent by 2025,” he said.
If Mexico will retaliate and start taxing tariffs on US imports to the Mexican market, the economic recession could become deeper and “there are estimates of these studies, especially from the Brooklyns Institute, which could be up to a contraction of 3 percent,” he emphasized.
Today the automotive industry and Autopartes are paying tariffs, but there is another amount that does not pay and had not received its TMEC certification, he recalled.
“You have to attend to that part of exporters, because otherwise the economy will stop further and can lead to a negative growth this year and lead to a recession,” he said.
The instrumentation of the judicial reform is paid to uncertainty for businesses “not knowing if you can win a trial to the government” with the new conformation that arises from the Judiciary, said the President of the National Committee of Economic Studies of IMEF.
Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora indicated that in the following months the growth expectation for the end of the year will generate more distortions for tariffs and institutional changes that were undertaken in this federal administration that have been reflected in an economy with less dynamism and that is projected will have a generation of 280 thousand formal jobs with a change rate of 21 pesos per dollar at the end of 2025.
The Mexican economy is expected to have an expansion of only 0.6 percent despite the decrease in the interest rate of the Bank of Mexico to 8.25 percent, the president of the IMEF concluded.
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