The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) said that a recession in the United States would be an obstacle to Mexico in the next quarters.
“To the extent that the economy of the United States Vacile with the possibility of a recession, the Mexican economy will face an important obstacle in the next quarters,” said the agency led by Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora.
According to preliminary figures, the US economy contracted 0.3% in the first quarter in annualized terms, below 2.4% of the previous quarter.
“The important deceleration of the United States economy will have effects in Mexico, who faces internal challenges such as economic activity remains in contraction and with a rates of the gross domestic product that was raying 0%,” he said.
According to preliminary data from INEGI, the Mexican economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter compared to the previous period.
The figure was largely driven by a strong increase in agricultural activity, which grew 8.1% in the first quarter, supported by relatively favorable climatic conditions, IMEF said.
While industrial production contracted 0.3%, in line with a monthly contraction of 0.7% in March, he added.
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“While the sector already faced difficulties before the imposition of tariffs, these measures have exacerbated the fall,” he said.
The services sector had a growth and an annual rate of 1.3%, consisting of a 0.5% drop in the month of March.
“This sector was the main driver of GDP throughout 2024, thanks to the low unemployment and the significant salary increases,” he said.
According to IMEF, although wages continue to increase a relatively healthy rhythm, employment creation has slowed down, suggesting that the post pandemic recovery cycle in Mexico is coming to an end.
The data of the IMEF manufacturing and non -manufacturing indicators of April suggested that economic activity remains in contraction.
Both indicators recorded levels that indicate an absence of economic expansion compared to March.
“This result adds to the signal shown by the indicators in recent months, which has warned us of a weak rhythm of economic growth,” he said.
The manufacturing IMEF indicator decreased 1.4 points compared to the month of April, and stood for 13 consecutive month in the contraction zone (45.5
The trend-cycle series and adjusted by company size were maintained below the expansion zone with 46.2 and 45.9 levels respectively.
“The signal is overwhelming, the figures reveal that the contraction of the manufacturing sector prevails, and extends in these first months of the year,” he said.
The non -manufacturing IMEF indicator increased marginally 0.5 points, located in 49.0 units.
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The trend-cycle series dropped 0.1 points, closing at 49.0, while adjusted by company size rose 1.2 points, with 48.3 units.
The three measurements fluctuate below the threshold of 50.0 units, so the reading is an absence of expansion in the services and trade sector.
“The services and trade indicators continue to send a contraction signal at the beginning of this second quarter of the year, thus prolonging the poor performance during the first quarter of 2025,” he said.
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