The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) assured that Mexico will have greater economic growth as long as there is a successful renegotiation of the USMCA and it offers legal and regulatory certainty, which was affected by the reforms approved at the end of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
“The best way to reverse the trend (of low economic growth) is to offer legal and regulatory certainty to the investor, as well as to achieve a successful negotiation of the USMCA,” said Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora, president of the IMEF.
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He recalled that the absence of growth also affects productivity compared to other countries: “This is a factor that multinational companies take into account when deciding where to invest.”
According to the business leader, Mexico’s GDP growth for 2026 remains stable at 1.3 percent and is estimated at 1.8 percent for 2027.
“Unexpected geopolitical events and the dynamics of our commercial relationship with the United States could affect these estimates downwards in the short term,” he said.
He said that since September 2024, when Morena controlled Congress, the approval of reforms proposed by López Obrador began, and from there gross fixed investment begins to fall in Mexico.
“Gross fixed investment that reflects investment in machinery, equipment and construction, both by nationals and foreigners, continued its downward pace,” he commented.
Fixed investment has been experiencing continuous declines for 13 months with contractions of between 8 percent and 9 percent annually, he noted.
Although foreign direct investment flows in September suggest a gradual recovery ($13.2 billion), “this rises due to accounts between companies, which are recorded as loans.”
“It is frustrating to see that the goals set by the government are not achieved… public spending must be cut and public policies that encourage growth must be implemented,” said Víctor Manuel Herrera Espinosa, president of the IMEF Economic Studies Committee.
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He highlighted that one year after Plan Mexico, the Mexican economy is still not growing, “the objective is not being met, those sectoral measures that allow the country to grow are missing.”
Inflation is also projected to end at 3.95 percent by the end of the year, outside the Bank of Mexico’s target goal of 3 percent, which implies that the central bank’s interest rate reductions will be postponed.
By the end of the year, the exchange rate is projected to be 19 pesos per dollar, one peso more than the previous year.
