It is a pause but it is not bad. For Mexico it will be a disaster if Donald Trump at the end establishes tariffs.
It was negotiated and there is a price, for now the deployment of 10 thousand elements of the National Guard along the border with the United States and whose primary mission will be to prevent the passage of fentanyl and migrant people.
In the facts, we are facing the border seal, from Rio Bravo al Suchiate and the Usumacinta, because in the south the deployment of military forces already operates since Trump himself demanded it in his previous term.
The Mexican authorities will have to be very careful so that a humanitarian crisis is not generated, because the migrants will continue trying to reach the United States, but every day they will see the most complicated path and where the risks will increase for their own security.
People traffickers will be on the prowl, because they know that restrictions give them dividends. It will cost more the work of the coyotes, but will continue to operate that branch of organized crime.
Fentanil will also continue to the United States. It has never been able to stop drug trafficking and less with a punitive approach. It is already more than half a century of the war on drugs decreed by Richard Nixon and the results are not hopeful.
But what can be done is to influence the magnitudes, with adequate supervisions on the borders and port customs of the Pacific, to detect the shipments of precursors that come from China and thus avoid the manufacture of the fentanyl.
But the most relevant, now, as in the past, is to face the drug traffickers and their protection networks.
If this is done, it will also have a price, the increase in violence in the short term, but also a reward, the recovery of territorial control.
You have a month to achieve results and the time already runs, but dialogue tables between governments with which you can refine what is expected, of each part, to consolidate a commitment that is durable will be established.
There are four weeks to persuade the White House that the best decision is that of collaboration and coordination. Strategic vision and talent, is what will be required.
It will be necessary to establish, in the same way, what are the lines that are not willing to cross.
Donald Trump will not cease in his pressures, with that he will have to operate during the next four years, but what is in the hands of the Mexican government and President Claudia Sheinbaum is to shake the inheritance of a security strategy that was actually a failure and that is compromising the country’s very integrity.
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