Petroleum prices could rise to maximum of several years if they will retaliate to US attacks blocking a crucial bottleneck for world energy, Goldman Sachs warned, which is a new obstacle to the struggle of several years against inflation.
Key data
Brent oil prices, international reference, remained stable at $ 77 per barrel at 10 am edt during an agitated session on Monday, the first day of negotiation for the basic product since the United States attacked Iran.
That raises the two -week increase in Brent oil prices at 15%, but there could be much more pressure on oil prices, warned a Goldman group led by Daan Struyven, co -director of research of global raw materials of the investment bank, in a client note.
Brent oil prices could shoot more than $ 110 per barrel if Iran decides to close the narrow critic of Ormuz, Goldman predicted, modeling a scenario in which oil flows through the sea route decrease 50% for at least a month.
That would mark an increase of 30% compared to the already high price of Monday for the reference index, sending the Brent to its highest level since July 2022, since the United States and its allies sanctioned the oil of the three main producers, Russia, after invading Ukraine.
What is the Ormuz Strait?
The Ormuz Strait is the only maritime step that joins the Persian Gulf with the open ocean. It is a critical route for the region rich in energy, and the equivalent of approximately 20% of world oil consumption moved through the Strait in 2024, according to the US Department of Energy. “There are very few alternative options to get the oil from the Strait if it is closed,” the energy department wrote in a blog post last week. Iranian state media indicated that after US attacks, the country’s parliament supported the closure of the passage. At least two superpetroleros who transported oil bound for the strait turned Monday, according to Reuters. Iran is the ninth largest oil producer in the world, but its proximity to the Ormuz Strait, which also handles approximately half of the exports of the largest non -American producer, Saudi Arabia, gives the country a significant influence on the energy of the Middle East.
Will the increase in oil prices cause greater inflation?
Yes. According to JP Morgan economists, who warned last week to keep Brent oil prices above $ 75 this summer would contribute to a 2 % increase in global inflation of the consumer price index. The perspective of an increase in energy prices is a matter of concern for the US, since it faces the warnings of economists about a rebound in tariff inflation.
Main critic
President Donald Trump launched a warning to oil producers in a social media post on Monday: “Everyone, keep the prices of low oil! I am watching! They are falling into the hands of the enemy. They do not do it!”
Cita Crucial
In a perhaps surprising event, the reaction of investors in bond and shares markets was moderated on Monday, despite the highest geopolitical risk. The American stock market Index S&P 500 rose around 0.3%, while the 10 -year 10 -year reference treasure bonds fell four basic points, below 4.35%, indicating a slight rebound in the bonds. “As for what all this means for markets in the future, the key is in itself the Iranian regime uses oil as a weapon,” Jim Reid wrote on Monday, Deutsche Bank’s strategist.
This article was originally published in Forbes Us.
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