(These are the market notes on today’s action by Mike Santoli, CNBC’s Senior Markets Commentator. See today’s video update from Mike above.) The market continues to tread water, the indexes churning below record highs while a majority of stocks slip and evidence of economic-growth concerns surface in spots. Nvidia held the S & P 500 near the flat line almost on its own, up another 2.6% after Meta ‘s $15 billion deal with CoreWeave for AI infrastructure services was enough to recharge the enthusiasm for the sustained demand for processing capacity. Elsewhere, though, the tape is a bit heavy, specifically in consumer cyclicals, after a soft Consumer Confidence reading that showed the jobs hard to get vs. jobs plentiful spread making another new cycle low. This came along with a generally as-expected JOLTS report that nonetheless saw job openings slip below the total number of unemployed workers for the first time in years. Equal-weight consumer discretionary has been under a bit of pressure, with restaurant and travel names weakening, and is now clearly underperforming the broad market on a one-year basis. Banks and in particular consumer-finance plays (credit-card issuers) were conspicuously weak. Along with lower Treasury yields and another supply-driven drop in crude oil prices, it gives the tape a bit of a minor “growth scare” appearance. Though it’s important to point out the final day of the quarter could mean a fair amount of portfolio rebalancing might also be at work. Pharma stocks were on the rise as Pfizer and others cut a deal with the administration to offer some drugs direct to consumers at reduced prices for cash payers, and in return avoided some tariffs. This lifts an overhang from a deeply out-of-favor and cheap-seeming group. Is the pharma index breaking its steep downtrend? Signs of life from defensive sectors and consumer cyclicals wobbling might suggest the market is more preoccupied with near-term downside macroeconomic risk, as we likely are headed into a government shutdown and an official-data vacuum. All of it is solidifying the view that an October Fed rate cut is a lock. The consensus still seems to believe a few things that they think will keep markets biased to the upside for a bit: An incipient reacceleration of growth as rate cuts and tax-cut provisions take hold; a durable corporate-capital spending binge; a balanced labor market holding consumption steady if not strong; a year-end rally chase as not-fully-invested professional investors try to keep up. It’s all plausible, though worth noting over history the fourth quarter is up “only” 75-80% of all years, not a sure lock.
