Despite the increasingly partisan sentiment in the cryptocurrency industry, bitcoin Regardless of who wins the US presidential election in November, it will evolve over the long term.
That’s the view many crypto investors will embrace as the wave of optimism fueled by former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of the cryptocurrency this summer begins to wane.
“Do I think we’ll be in six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Regardless of who wins, do I think we’ll be in six figures? Almost certainly,” said Stephen Lubka, head of private clients and family offices. Swan Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin has always been an investment rooted in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns and the United States,” Lubka added. “No candidate is changing that.”
Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency will somehow limit or depress the price of bitcoin are overblown, said James Davies, co-founder of the cryptocurrency trading platform. He noted that crypto startups may face more challenges, but the industry will continue to fight and evolve moving forward. This helps make bitcoin more institutionalized than ever this year with the introduction of US bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
“Some of our communities … have become echo chambers, convinced that if one side or the other wins, the sky will fall,” Davies said. “The truth is that the market is robust, not centered in the US and not reacting negatively to big events on either side.”
“It’s not about the price of a global commodity, it’s about affordability and regulation for US-based users,” he said. “Crypto needs to learn from traditional finance, it needs to lobby both sides, align with both sides, and succeed regardless of the election. If we want to build a great ecosystem, we can’t afford to be partisan.”
Exaggerated risk
Lubka agreed that some observers are “overstating the risks of a Harris presidency” because of the hostility the industry experienced during the Biden administration. He added that “all the signs we’re seeing with Harris represent a de-escalation of the Biden-era crypto rhetoric.”
“The election results will have minimal impact on how bitcoin performs over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Tyrone Ross, founder and president of registered investment advisor 401 Financial. “There are still a lot of firms working with ETF access, interest rate cuts are coming, and retail trading in centralized custodians is at an all-time low. (It’s) certainly going to be more difficult for young startups, but as an emerging institutional level, the quality asset is who’s in the position. he will continue to prove himself regardless of whether he is.
After hitting an all-time high above $73,000 in March, bitcoin has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of 2024. Investors widely expected the price to continue in this lull until US voters decide on the next president. Election news, on the other hand, has less impact on the price of bitcoin, which has recently been more influenced by macroeconomic developments.
Bitcoin fell nearly 3% after Tuesday’s debate between Harris and Trump, though investors attributed that to some positioning around interest rate updates in Japan and US inflation data for August released early Wednesday.
Growing partisan sentiment
In recent months, the election has been speculated to act as an immediate catalyst for bitcoin – with many characterizing a potential second Trump presidency as a boon for the industry. The former president, for example, spoke at the annual Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in late July and made the reference a priority in the Republican Party Platform. This week, Bernstein analysts said the way to invest in a potential Trump presidency is through bitcoin, adding that if he wins on November 5, the cryptocurrency could reach an all-time high of around $80,000. Bernstein said a Harris victory could send bitcoin to $40,000.
“Would there be an immediate pump if Trump wins in November? Yes, absolutely. Could there be immediate selling pressure if Harris wins? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But in the medium term, I don’t think it’s dynamic,” Swan told Bitcoin- from Lubka.
Vice President Harris has not shared public opinion on cryptocurrency, but some in the industry are concerned that he is anti-crypto, and he shares the sentiments of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler. cryptocurrency acceptance.
“There were no clear statements made, but there is a bad history under the Biden administration … so I understand why people are paying attention,” Lubka said.
While there are concerns thanks to the Biden administration’s stance on bitcoin, “I would remind investors that bitcoin is doing great under the current administration,” Lubka added. It has “been one of the most successful assets in the world at a time when everyone was against it. Governments have traditionally been at least somewhat hostile to bitcoin throughout its history, and it has been done extremely well.”
Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in all but three years since 2012.
