Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran on January 9, 2026.
Mahsa | Afp | Getty Images
Iran now appears to be next on President Donald Trump’s list, after Venezuela and Greenland.
The backdrop is a wave of protests in Iran, now in their third week. What began as demonstrations over a sharp jump in inflation has evolved into nationwide, anti-government unrest. More than 500 people have been killed as Iran’s government moved aggressively to suppress dissent, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
Trump weighed in Friday with a Truth Social post declaring that “the United States of America will come to their rescue,” referring to the protestors.
Those weren’t empty words. White House officials have since outlined potential options for him, with briefings scheduled this week on possible responses that could include military, cyber and economic measures, according to MS Now and other media outlets. No decisions have been announced.
Any escalation would carry major consequences. Iran is not only a major oil producer, but also wields influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global crude. Disruption there would almost certainly ripple through energy markets.
“The complete closure of the Strait that can result in a $10 to $20 per barrel spike,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Analysts caution that Iran presents far greater risks than previous U.S. targets. “Iran is far more capable of retaliating against the U.S., especially by attacking regional energy infrastructure,” said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.
Iranian officials have echoed that warning. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned of potential retaliation if the U.S. strikes the country. “In the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target,” Qalibaf said, according to a Reuters report.
What you need to know today
The Strait of Hormuz back in focus. Industry experts cautioned that a U.S.-Iran conflict could prompt Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly a third of the world’s seaborne crude flows. Here’s what a U.S. intervention in Iran could look like.
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