The damages caused to Iranian nuclear facilities by the initial wave of Israeli air attacks early on Friday seem to be limited, according to experts who have reviewed the satellite images available in the market.
Israel’s attacks managed to kill Iranian nuclear military and scientific leaders and attack military control and control facilities and aerial defenses, but satellite images showed no significant damage to nuclear infrastructure, several experts said.
“The first day was attacked what would be achieved by surprise: kill leadership, attack nuclear scientists, anti -aircraft defense systems and the ability to retaliate,” said nuclear expert David Albright, of the Institute for International Science and Security.
“We cannot see any visible damage in Fordow or Isfahan. There was damage to Natanz,” Albright said, referring to Iranian nuclear facilities. But “there is no evidence that the underground site was destroyed.”
The UN Nuclear Control Agency Chief Rafael Grossi said Friday before the Security Council that the Pilot of surface enrichment of the Natanz complex had been destroyed and Iran had reported attacks in Fordow and Isfahan.
Natanz’s extensive nuclear complex is the main uranium enrichment installation of Iran. It has an underground enrichment plant and another on the surface.
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Two regional sources said that at least 20 Iranian military commanders died in the attack, an impressive elimination reminiscent of Israeli attacks that last year quickly ended with the dome of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Iran also declared that six of his main nuclear scientists had died.
Albright explained that his analysis was based on the latest images available, around 11:20 Tehran time
He added that there may also be attacks of unmanned airplanes in the tunnels to underground centrifuging plants and cyber attacks that did not leave visible traces.
“In terms of visible damage, we do not see much and we will see what happens tonight,” he said, adding that he believes that Israel’s attacks were still in an initial phase.
Albright said that the situation of Iranian reserves of enriched uranium was unknown and that it was possible that Israel had avoided important attacks against nuclear facilities for fear of harming international inspectors who were there.
Prolonged operation
Israel said that its objective were nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and Iran’s military controls, at the beginning of what would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear weapon.
Military and nuclear experts said that, even with a massive fire, military action would probably only stop a program that the West fears that it is already aimed at producing atomic bombs one day, although Iran will deny it.
Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in non -proliferation of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies, said the damage to Natanz’s facilities seemed “moderate.”
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“Israel destroyed the fuel enrichment pilot plant, as well as some support buildings related to energy supply,” he said.
Lewis added that Israel also hit a support building – positive for the energy supply – about two underground nuclear enrichment facilities.
“The underground enrichment ships, as well as the great nearby underground installation in the mountains, do not seem damaged.”
It was not clear what damage had suffered the key nuclear installation of Fordow, which could be used to develop nuclear weapons and is buried at great depth.
“There has always been the widespread opinion that Israel would not have the necessary artillery to destroy Fordow without US military support,” Mark Dubowitz, director of the Foundation For Defense of Democracies Studies Center.
The United States is better equipped than Israel to destroy these types of objectives with its most powerful bombs, the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, 14,000 kg. If Iran decides not to negotiate a nuclear agreement, the United States could use its B2 bombers and those bombs to destroy Fordow, Dubowitz said.
Decker Eveleth, a strategic analyst of the Can Corp research group, said that the general objective of Israel’s campaign was not yet clear.
“It is possible that they can dismantle the Iranian command and control, destroy the air forces and achieve various objectives related to the Iranian missile program,” he said.
“(But) if their main objective is the prevention of a nuclear irruption, can they destroy enough of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure to really prevent that from happening?
With Reuters information
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