The extensive campaign of air attacks in Israel aims to go beyond destroying the nuclear centrifugers and the missile ability of Iran. It seeks to dismantle the foundations of the government of Supreme Leader Ali Jamenei and leave it on the verge of collapse, Israeli, Western and Regional officials reported.
The Prime Minister, Benjamín Netanyahu, wants Iran to weaken enough to force him to make fundamental concessions and permanently abandon his nuclear enrichment, his ballistic missile program and his support for militant groups throughout the region, the sources indicate.
He also wants to weaken the Jamenei government. The campaign seeks to “exhaust the capacity of the regime to project power and maintain internal cohesion,” said a senior regional official.
The Islamic Government of Iran faces an unprecedented existential crisis since the 1979 revolution; Not even the brutal war between Iran and Iraq of 1980-1988 represented such a direct threat to the clerical regime. Israel, the most advanced army in the Middle East, can attack any Iran point with advanced F-35 fighters, murders perpetrated by MOSAD agents and cyber-cybergen technology.
In recent days, Israel expanded its objectives to include government institutions such as police and the headquarters of state television in Tehran. The Netanyahu government plans at least two weeks of intense air attacks, indicate four government and diplomatic sources, although the rhythm depends on the time late in eliminating missile reserves and the launching capacity of Iran.
Dennis Ross, formerly for the Middle East and an advisor to several US administrations, believes that Iran is feeling the pressure and could be approaching the negotiating table after the attacks eliminated a large part of Jamenei’s intimate circle, damaged the nuclear infrastructure and missile site, and killed high safety figures.
“I think the regime feels vulnerable,” said Ross, currently a member of the Washington Institute for the Policy of the Near East. Although he insisted that Israel’s main objective is to paralyze the nuclear and missile programs of Iran, Ross admitted that if the regime fell as a consequence, “Israel would not regret it.”
Despite the belligerent tone of US President Donald Trump in recent days, he would probably accept if Tehran can offer a credible route for an agreement, Ross said.
But, after Tehran did not offer concessions during the six previous rounds of nuclear negotiations with the United States, Washington will need firm guarantees of Iran that its objectives, including the permanent abandonment of uranium enrichment, will be fulfilled before supporting a high fire.
“I think the cost for them will be high,” he said.
For Iran, there is a key calculation: allow Jamenei, 86, to retire without humiliation, according to two Iranian sources. If he is stripped of his dignity or the perspective of survival, he could opt for an open conflict, they added.
After Trump demanded the “unconditional surrender” of Iran on social networks on Tuesday, Jamenei promised in a televised speech that any US military intervention in Iran would face “irreparable damage.”
In recent days, Netanyahu also openly raised the possibility of a regime change, promising to the Iranians that “the day of liberation is approaching.”
Regional governments fear that the situation gets out of control, taking Iran – a nation ethnically diverse 90 million people who extend between the Middle East and Asia – to chaos or unleashing a conflict that could extend beyond its borders.
“You can’t remodel the region through the belligerent force,” said Anwar Gargash, advisor to the president of the United Arab Emirates. “Some problems may be solved, but others will be created.”
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They will be isolated and with few possibilities against Israel
Iran’s strategy, which dates back decades – librants war from the shadow through its allies – collapsed to the Israeli offensive after the attack of October 7, 2023 against Israel by the Islamist group Palestinian Hamas. His regional resistance axis collapsed: Hamas was crushed in Gaza, Hezbollah was defeated in Lebanon, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by the rebels and the Hutí militia in Yemen remained defensive.
Russia and China – considered allies of Tehran – remained on the sidelines, leaving Iran isolated before the Western powers, determined to end their regional influence and their nuclear ambitions.
“Iran not only faces Israel,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the program on Iran of the Middle East Institute, based in Washington DC “faces the United States and the European powers.”
And although the Sunni states of the Arab Gulf publicly condemned Israeli attacks, in private the leaders of Riyad and Abu Dhabi – ancient allies of the United States – could host with satisfaction a weakening of their Shiite rival, whose allies attacked vital infrastructure of the gulf, including oil facilities, according to analysts.
Military, Tehran has few options. Israel controls the Iranian sky, having largely destroyed its aerial defenses. It is believed that much of the Iranian arsenal of ballistic weapons was damaged by the Israeli attacks, and approximately 400 of those who triggered fourth destroyed mostly by the Israel Multical Air Defense System.
“When the missiles are exhausted, what will remain?” Asks Vatanka.
But with the Iranian opposition fragmented and without indications of divisions within the powerful revolutionary guard (CGRI), which has almost 250,000 combatants, including its volunteers from the Basij militia, there are few possibilities that the Iranian ruling elite is easily collapsed.
There were no important protests in the streets of Tehran, and many Iranians express their anger to Israel for the attacks. Without a land invasion or an internal lifting, a regime change in Iran is a remote possibility, according to the authorities.
On Tuesday, Trump launched a veiled threat to Jamenei, declaring that American intelligence knows its location and had no intention of killing him “for now.”
Jamenei leader murder could aggravate the conflict
The murder of the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, by Israel in September plunged the Lebanese group in confusion, but regional officials and observers warned that killing the old Jamenei would not have the same impact.
“The true power now resides in his son, wet, and in the CGRI, which is deeply rooted despite the loss of key commanders,” said a regional source. “They are still the backbone of the regime.”
The murder of Jamenei, a religious leader of millions of Shiite, could cause a strong reaction.
Jonathan Panikoff, former American national intelligence for Trump’s first mandate, said that if the Israeli campaign encourages a regime change in Iran, it could be, at least initially, in a more intransigent administration.
“What will probably follow an Iranian theocratic government is not democracy, but the body of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard,” said Panikoff, who currently works at the Atlantic Council Studies Center. “Israel could be immersed in a perpetual, continuous and much more intense war that is no longer maintained in the shadow.”
With Reuters information
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