The peso had its best level against the dollar since the end of December and the BMV rose strongly in a volatile session, backed by a colder American inflation fact than expected, but nervously by the tariffs promoted by President Donald Trump to imported products.
The weight was appreciated 0.39% when the exchange rate was located at 20,1797 units per dollar, the best level for the national currency since December 20, according to Banxico closing data.
Consumer prices in the United States increased less than expected in February, but the improvement is probably temporary in a context of aggressive import tariffs that are expected to raise the costs of most goods in the coming months.
Lee: US Chief of Commerce says that nothing will stop the tariffs to the metals and add to copper
The fact, however, led the operators to bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in June. The Fed meets next week.
Donald Trump threatened Wednesday with deepening the World Trade War with new tariffs on European Union products, after the main business partners of the United States announced reprisals just a few hours after 25% tariffs were entered into force to all imports of steel and aluminum.
Lee: Canada announces retaliation tariffs for 20,000 MDD against US products
President Claudia Sheinbaum said today that she will wait until April 2 to decide if reciprocal tariffs to the United States steel and aluminum are applied after the entry into force of taxes of 25% imposed by its commercial partner for those products.
On the same day, the new Secretary of the Treasury, Edgar Amador, said that the Mexican economy presents signals of deceleration for the commercial policy of the United States.
Lee: Mexican economy shows deceleration signals, admits hacienda
The commercial confrontation put the caution note in the markets, waiting for what may happen with the US economy.
“Our prognosis is not a recession in the US, but the economy is losing dynamism, so we believe are coming downward reviews in the 2025 forecasts, and it is mainly due to the uncertainty that Trump’s policies are generating. The tariff, but also the government’s expense, ”said Alejandro Padilla, chief economist and DGA of Economic and Financial Analysis of Banorte.
He added that the situation, due to the great economic interdependence between the United States and Mexico, is a downward risk in the 1% growth forecast for the Mexican economy.
“Technically we are in the first support of the ‘Great Rank’ 20.20/20.75 which suggests creation of long medium -term positions, however, in the short term, an extension is seen until 20.10/20.15 with immediate resistances marked in 20.28 and 20.35 in extension,” said Intercam Casa de Bolsa in a report.
BMV rises 0.93%
The S&P/BMV IPC share index, meanwhile, climbed 0.93% to 51,988.30 points in a volatile session, in line with Wall Street. The reference had suffered on Monday its greatest daily fall since the end of August in the middle of a wide liquidation of global markets.
“We consider a recovery movement, after respecting an Fibonacci in the 51,000 integers. In this sense, it would look for the 200 -day PM at 52,140 points, overcoming this reference will boost the price line towards 52,400 units. The trend indicators maintain fragility signals, ”said Banorte.
The titles of the Industrial Mining Peñoles, which fired 8.97%, and Grupo México, which climbed 5.28%, supported the market. The actions rose by a rise in metal prices in the middle of the start of steel and aluminum tariffs and that could soon include copper.
For fixed income, the Mexican government bonus at 10 years quoted with a yield of 9,594%, compared to 9,575% of the previous closure, while the debt at 20 years offered a return of 10,024%, compared to 10.09% of the previous session.
With information from Francisco Rivera and Reuters
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