The 2026 Academy Awards has plenty of exciting races in key categories, but as in any year, there are a few that have looked sewn up for weeks. Ludwig Göransson is almost certainly going to win Best Original Score for Sinners, which would be his third time in the last seven years. Paul Thomas Anderson, who was 0-11 at the Oscars going into this year, is cruising to a victory in Best Director for One Battle After Another. But the most certain of this year’s frontrunners has to be Jessie Buckley in Best Actress.
This award has been Buckley’s to lose since the fall festivals, when Hamnet emerged as one of the few premieres to generate genuine momentum. The film is built around her performance of a mother struck by grief at the loss of her child, and even those who aren’t too fond of the movie can appreciate her work in it. Factor in that the Irish actor has given plenty of great, admired performances and has yet to win an Academy Award, and you’ve got a recipe for a steamrolling campaign.
And yet, there is a glimmer of hope that this category could get as interesting as it has been the last few years.
There’s Still A Chance For A Two-Person Race For Best Actress
The past three years, Best Actress has been one of the more fun categories to follow through awards season, in large part because the five-person field has seemingly come down to a one-on-one showdown. In 2022, it was Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once and Cate Blanchett for Tár trading precursors back and forth, and Yeoh emerged victorious. 2023 came down to the wire, with Emma Stone winning her second Oscar for Poor Things and beating out Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon. And last year, Anora‘s Mikey Madison triumphing over The Substance‘s Demi Moore was one of the night’s biggest surprises.
Exactly where this two-person race perception comes from is unclear, though it may ultimately be cemented by the Golden Globes. That awards show, which always occurs right around Oscar nominations voting, splits its nominees into Drama and Musical or Comedy categories, which then end up blatantly abused by campaigns until the distinction carries no real meaning. As a result, the strongest contenders for Best Actress often end up in separate categories – and both winning. With each getting a chance to give a widely seen speech, they establish themselves as the ones to watch for the rest of the season.
This year, Buckley won the Globe on the Drama side, to no one’s surprise. Rose Byrne won the Musical or Comedy equivalent for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. She’s been playing the long game, sustaining interest from her movie’s Sundance premiere in January 2025 and her Best Actress win at the Berlin Film Festival the month after. But instead of clawing her way into the fifth spot, she’s emerged as a critics’ favorite and now sits firmly in second place.
Buckley remains far ahead of her fellow nominees, and will likely win the Actor and BAFTA awards prior to the Oscars. But Byrne, who has worked in Hollywood for a long time and is finally receiving this kind of attention, is putting herself in a great spot for an upset. She is her film’s sole nominee, and If I Had Legs is surely not nearly as widely seen as Hamnet at this point. But now that she’s nominated, more voters will see it, and discover that she delivers an astonishing performance – the kind that can stick with you through the crunch of watching the nominated movies.
If Buckley continues to look comfortable, the assumption she’ll win could become so great that individual voters who might otherwise be swayed by the larger industry narrative suddenly feel free to throw a vote to their favorite. On Oscars night, it could be Olivia Colman winning over Glenn Close all over again. And it’s thrilling moments like those that make the whole thing worth watching.