The Mexican economy will play a fund in 2025 for the tariffs of President Trump and the suppression of private investment amid uncertainty, and then resume moderate growth in 2026, the Japan Credit Rating qualifying agency (JCR) foreshadowed.
“The economic growth of Mexico in 2025 will be close to 0% due to the weakened external demand derived from additional tariffs and the suppression of private investment amid the uncertainty in the supply chain,” he said in an announcement on the sovereign note of Mexico.
However, he also anticipated that domestic demand will be promoted by the effects of industrial support measures and a decrease in interest rates, which will make the economy
resume moderate growth in 2026.
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Therefore, the agency decided to confirm Mexico’s qualifications in “A-” for the long-term sovereign debt in foreign currency, and “a+” in local currency. Both with stable perspective.
He pointed out that Banxico began to cut his reference rate in 2024 in response to the economic slowdown and the decrease in inflation, and that he continued with four consecutive cuts of 50 basic points in 2025.
“While uncertainties persist in the external environment, JCR hopes that domestic demand will be supported by a decrease in monetary policy interest and the implementation of the Mexico Plan, which will lead to a gradual return to the growth of approximately 1% in 2026,” he predicted.
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He stressed that President Claudia Sheinbaum resumed AMLO’s policies and advocates the eradication of corruption and the expansion of social welfare policies that consider socially vulnerable and low -income groups, and that the president currently enjoys a high approval rate, close to 80%.
He added that the government’s energy policies currently prioritize the basic principle of strengthening Pemex and CFE, and plan to continue supporting the expansion and improvement of their business and financial performances.
He pointed out that due to years of insufficient investment in development, Pemex has faced prolonged stagnation in the production of crude oil, and its infrastructure and production facilities have continued to deteriorate.
“As a result, the company now accumulates a substantial debt and is under growing pressure to modernize its operations,” he said.
Regarding economic policy, JCR said that the Government seeks to boost industries through substantial investments within the framework of the Mexico Plan, which will be implemented between 2025 and 2030.
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In fiscal politics, the agency said that the Sheinbaum government follows the AMLO approach, who maintained a fiscal discipline even during the Covid-19 pandemic, and that has expressed its intention to reduce the fiscal deficit.
He said that budget income grew in 2024 thanks to higher non -oil income, but expenses also increased due to the expansion of social policies and the accelerated completion of infrastructure projects before the presidential elections.
He added that as a result, the need for public sector financing worsened to 5.7% of GDP, and the historical balance of the financial requirements of the public sector (the broader measure of the debt) increased to 51.3% of GDP.
He mentioned that in the 2025 budget, the Government indicated its intention to restrict spending, projecting an improvement in the financial requirements of the public sector to around 3.9%-4%, with a 52.3%SHRFSP shr projection.
“Compared to public sector debt figures in other countries, Mexico’s Shrfsp remains relatively low among sovereigns with A rating,” he contrasted.
The Treasury stressed in a statement that with the agency’s announcement, Mexico maintains the investment grade with the eight qualifiers that evaluate its sovereign debt.
“With this ratification, Mexico maintains its access in favorable conditions to financial markets. The Ministry of Finance reiterates its commitment to macroeconomic stability, the responsible management of debt and the consolidation of an environment conducive to sustained growth,” he said.
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