JPMorgan has an updated set of biopharma names that could see upside this year after a hot and cold period for some companies in the sector. The firm’s top stock pick in the group continues to be Eli Lilly . Gilead Sciences and Bristol Myers Squibb also appear well positioned, according to analyst Chris Scott. “While the US Large Cap Biopharma group has outperformed the S & P500 YTD, sector valuations remain near all-time lows vs the market,” Scott wrote in a note to clients this month. “Within the sector, we see a clear preference for cleaner stories with either momentum in core assets and/or near-term launches that could beat expectations with very little investor appetite for names with messier near-term setups,” the analyst added. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) has gained 6.5% this year, outpacing gains from both the S & P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite . That is a comeback from last year’s performance, during which the NBI shed 3%, while the broad market index rallied more than 23% and the Nasdaq added nearly 29%. Last year saw a divergence in growth across biopharma names, with obesity drugmaker Eli Lilly raking in huge gains while shares of other big-name drugmakers such as Novo Nordisk and Covid vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer have suffered. .NBI 1Y mountain Nasdaq Biotechnology Index performance over the past year. Looking ahead, JPMorgan sees continued growth for Eli Lilly stock, which has enjoyed a 13% gain in 2025 and a roughly 16% jump over the past year. “We continue to see room for further upside with Mounjaro and Zepbound positioned for continued healthy growth as manufacturing/access continue to ramp, a potential mid-2026 launch for orforglipron, and ongoing upside to 2025+ estimates,” Scott said. Scott expects total prescriptions for weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro to ramp up throughout the year as access and capacity increase. He also anticipates Eli Lilly’s experimental obesity pill, orforglipron, to be a “major catalyst for shares” in the second quarter of this year when it will release clinical trial data. Assuming positive results, Lilly could launch orforglipron as early as mid-2026, Scott said. Eli Lilly reported mixed fourth-quarter results despite seeing demand for Zepbound and Mounjaro jump during the period. The company’s sales fell short of estimates as its revenue was hurt by lower realized prices. Zepbound and Mounjaro have underperformed expectations for two straight quarters. Bristol Myers is another one of JPMorgan’s top ideas given its product momentum. The stock slid on fourth-quarter results , which beat on top and bottom lines but disappointed with its fiscal 2025 guidance, according to analysts polled by LSEG. The stock has shed 2.4% year to date, but is still up roughly 10% over the past year. “While shares have traded off since earnings, we see this move tied to the modest topline/EPS miss (which was largely based on legacy product and Fx) rather than any concerning trends with the core story (as most of BMY’s growth drivers beat expectations in 4Q),” Scott said. Accelerated coverage of Bristol’s Cobenfy oral schizophrenia treatment and data for new schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s treatments could help build out the company’s product portfolio, Scott said. He explained this and its $2 billion cost-cutting plan should support multiple expansion and share upside. Gilead Sciences is similarly an appealing story given its 2025 pipeline and strong quarterly results, according to the firm. Scott noted the company’s HIV portfolio and focus on expense management this year. Regeneron and Merck are “out of favor names,” meanwhile, he said.
