The near-term outlook suddenly looks precarious for a stock market that’s near all-time highs, even after Friday’s big sell-off. Next week, investors will continue to act on what they learned this week. On the one hand, the artificial intelligence story that’s powered the stock market rally the last several months remains intact, with Microsoft this week becoming the second public company ever in the U.S. to hit a $4 trillion valuation after its strong June quarter results. On the other, it now turns out the U.S. labor market weakened significantly the past three months as tariffs moved higher. “Signs of fatigue are surfacing,” wrote Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide Financial. “Elevated valuations, softening performance and the onset of a historically weak seasonal stretch could test investors’ conviction in the weeks ahead.” On Friday, stocks were headed for a losing week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid about 3% in the latest five days. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were off by more than 2%, each. After leaving rates unchanged last week, the Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see-mode until September, by which time the central bank will have another two months of inflation and labor market data to gauge the effect of higher tariffs. Investors are walking that tightrope while navigating what is historically a weak season for stocks. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, August is the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average in data going back to 1988, and the second worst for the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. In fact, the S & P 500′s total monthly returns for August and September since 1990 averaged a decline of 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively, according to Wolfe Research. Tariffs With little on the calendar next week, investors are likely to turn their attention to the minute-by-minute changes on tariffs, among other events. Trump on Thursday signed an executive order that adjusted “reciprocal” tariffs on a host of countries, with new duties ranging from 10% to 41%. That latest round of updates raises the effective tariff rate across the entire economy to a range between 15% and 20%. While that is lower than the range of 25% or more that would have resulted from the initial April 2 announcement, it’s higher than the 10% baseline markets were pricing in just several weeks ago — and far above the 2% rate that prevailed at the start of the year. With trade deals far from over, more market observers are proceeding with caution . The eventual results of U.S. negotiations with China are one key focus, given that rare earths metals and magnets that power everything from electric vehicles to data centers are the major bargaining chip for Beijing . “Tariffs, number one, is what’s going to be driving the news cycle, as well as the market direction in conjunction,” said Charlie Ashley, portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds. Earnings The second quarter earnings season also continues to run at high gear. Thus far, of the 331 S & P 500 companies that have reported, more than 82% issues positive surprises. As of Aug. 1, the blended second quarter earnings growth rate for the S & P 500 is now 10.2%, double the 4.9% that was projected at the end of the June, according to FactSet data. Several S & P 500 companies will report results next week that will give investors further insight into the AI story, as well as into the health of consumer spending. Catalyst Funds’ Ashley said he’s paying particular attention to Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices . Consumer giants such as Walt Disney will also be reporting, as will major industrials, such as Caterpillar . Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Aug. 4 10:00 a.m. Durable Orders final (June) 10:00 a.m. Factory Orders (June) Earnings: Palantir Technologies , Vertex Pharmaceuticals , Axon Enterprise , Simon Property Group , Diamondback Energy , Coterra Energy , Tyson Foods , Loews , ON Semiconductor Tuesday, Aug. 5 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (June) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (July) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services final (July) 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI (July) Earnings: News Corp. , Devon Energy , Arista Networks , Amgen , Super Micro Computer , Match Group , Advanced Micro Devices , Yum! Brands , Marriott International , Fidelity National Information Services , Duke Energy , Pfizer , Molson Coors Beverage , Caterpillar , Marathon Petroleum , Apollo Global Management , Archer-Daniels-Midland Wednesday, Aug. 6 Earnings: CF Industries , Costco Wholesale , TKO Group , Paycom Software , Fortinet , Uber Technologies , Occidental Petroleum , MetLife , DoorDash , Airbnb , Rockwell Automation , McDonald’s , Emerson Electric , Walt Disney Thursday, Aug. 7 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/26) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (08/02) 8:30 a.m. Unit Labor Costs preliminary (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Productivity preliminary (Q2) 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (June) 3:00 p.m. Consumer Credit (June) Earnings: Live Nation Entertainment , Block , Take-Two Interactive Software , GoDaddy , Wynn Resorts , Gilead Sciences , Trade Desk , Insulet , Expedia Group , Motorola Solutions , Microchip Technology , Akamai Technologies , Ralph Lauren , Parker-Hannifin , Warner Bros. Discovery , ConocoPhillips , Martin Marietta Materials , Eli Lilly , Zimmer Biomet Holdings , EPAM Systems , Kenvue , Constellation Energy Friday, Aug. 8
