Maduro overthrow could pave way for U.S. oil companies to recover assets

Regime change in Venezuela could pave the way for the return of U.S. oil majors to the South American nation, which has the largest proven crude oil reserves in the world.

President Donald Trump called for U.S. oil companies to invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector, hours after U.S. forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife.

“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure,” Trump said in a press conference Saturday from his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida.

The oil majors have largely been silent since Maduro’s overthrow as the situation on the ground in Venezuela remains uncertain. But shares of Chevron, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips are rising as investors bet that the three largest U.S. oil companies will cash in after the U.S. military action.

Venezuela’s oil reserves are estimated at 303 billion barrels or about 17% of the global total, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The country’s production peaked at 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s but has declined significantly since then, according to energy consulting firm Kpler. Venezuela’s production currently stands at around 800,000 bpd, Kpler data shows.

Its reserves, located mostly in the Orinoco Belt in the eastern part of the country, are extra-heavy crude oil that require a greater level of technical expertise to extract, according to the EIA.

Former President Hugo Chavez seized assets from U.S. oil majors in 2007. Chevron is the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela. Exxon and Conoco have billions of dollars in outstanding claims against Caracas from Chavez’s nationalization.

It will take more than just easing U.S. sactions against Venezuela to encourage new investment in the country, Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott told clients in a Monday note. Trump said over the weekend that the U.S. embargo of Venezuelan oil remains in full effect.

U.S. producers would need to see a path to recover their claims from Caracas and have confidence in the stability of the government in Venezuela, McDermott said.

Trump railed against Venezuela’s oil nationalization, describing it as “one of the largest thefts of American property in the history of our country.”

“The oil companies are going to go in, they’re going to spend money, we’re going to take back the oil that, frankly, we should have taken back a long time ago,” the president said.

The administration will discuss plans with oil executives to expand in the country, a U.S. official told CNBC.

Chevron is best positioned to scale up production quickly if conditions allow, McDermott said. It exported about 140,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, Kpler data shows.

Chevron has a significant resource base in Venezuela, JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram told clients Monday. It has joint ventures with state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) that are responsible for 23% of the South American nation’s output, Jayaram said.

Chevron said it “remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets” in the wake of Maduro’s overthrow. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations,” the oil major said in a weekend statement.

The Biden administration issued a license in 2022 that allowed Chevron’s joint venture with PDVSA to produce and export oil. The Trump administration granted the oil major a restricted license in July 2025 that allowed it to pump but banned proceeds from going to the Maduro government.

Conoco and Exxon participated in Venezuela’s “oil opening” policy in the 1990s, which invited foreign investment to develop resources in the Orinoco Belt. They exited the country after Chavez’s nationalization and filed arbitration claims against Caracas.

Conoco has oustanding claims from abitration cases against the Venezuela approaching $10 billion, Jayaram said. Exxon’s claims are around $2 billion, he said.

Conoco is “monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability,” spokesperson Dennis Nuss said in a weekend statement. “It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments.”

Exxon has not responded to requests for comment.

Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure will likely cost billions. Investors were speculating the work could boost business for oil services companies, with shares of Slb up more than 10%, Halliburton gained 9%, while Baker Hughes added 4% in trading Monday.

The future of Venezuelan production depends on how the security situation on the ground evolves, said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Saturday note to clients.

Oil executives operating in Venezuela say it will cost $10 billion annually to turn production around and a stable security environment is essential to grow production back to historic levels, Croft said.

Venezuela production could grow by several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next 12 months if the Trump administration provides full sanctions relief and there is an orderly transition of power, she said.

“However, all bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like what occurred in Libya or Iraq,” Croft told clients.