Mexico City (EFE) .- Mexico registered a technical recession by aiming two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, according to CITI prospects presented on Wednesday.
At a press conference, the group -headed economist in Mexico, Julio Ruiz, recalled that GDP was reduced 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and anticipated that in the first quarter of 2025 0.4% will fall, which configures a technical recession.
“The simplest definition of recession is basically two negative consecutive quarters,” Ruiz said.
According to official INEGI data during the first quarter of 2025 there was an year -on -year contraction of 0.09 %, which adds to the 0.12 % decrease observed in the last quarter of 2024.
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However, Ruiz contrasted that the country will close the year with a growth of just 0.2%, which coincides with the consensus of private analysts of the CITI expectations survey, without ruling out adjustments later.
The projections of CITI and the average of private analysts add to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that estimated an expansion of the GDP of 0.3 % in 2025, or the zero growth expected by the World Bank and the fall of 1.3 % augured by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Among the factors that explain this slowdown are the least economic activity in the United States, such as the main trading partner of Mexico, political uncertainty for judicial elections and the fall in investment.
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Citi also foresaw that the public debt will close 2025 in 55.4% of GDP, above the official projection of 52.3% of the Treasury.
This difference responds, in part, to a higher fiscal deficit estimated by the bank, of up to 5 % of GDP, compared to 4 % planned by the Government.
As for general inflation, CITI estimated that it will close the year by 3.9%, although it could be slightly lower if the price containment agreements continue in gasoline.
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