Banxico reviewed his forecast for the Mexican economy in 2025 from 0.1% to 0.6%.
The Central Bank maintained its expectation of a low rate of growth for the rest of the year, but foresee that in the forecast horizon, the internal expenditure maintains a moderate trend, according to Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja.
The interval for the expected variation of GDP in 2025 was updated between 0.1% and 1.1%. At the end of May, the range was between a contraction of 0.5% and an advance of 0.7%.
By 2026, the monetary entity also slightly improved its prognosis for the expansion of the economy to 1.1%, from the previous 0.9%.
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The change in the perspective of growth occurs despite the imposition of tariffs by the United States, and the persistent uncertainty associated with the economic policy of that country.
The increase in spending is mainly supported by consumption, since the investment is expected to maintain weakness before the high uncertainty environment that prevails, said Rodríguez Ceja during the presentation of the quarterly inflation report of Banxico.
“It is still estimated that fiscal consolidation limits the contribution of public spending to the activity in 2025, although its achievement would be conducive to a higher growth in the medium term,” he said.
He indicated those that expectations for the United States industrial production continue to point to a weak second semester, followed by a moderate recovery in the following year.
He added that the forecasts continue to incorporate a limited impact of the US tariff measures on Mexican exports, given the positive behavior observed so far and the preferential treatment that the shipments made under the TMEC maintain.
“These assumptions could be modified as more information about the impact of these measures on the global and Mexico economy,” he said at a press conference.
He recalled that the national economy has shown a better behavior to which the external environment would have suggested, and that it could continue to exhibit a more favorable performance than the anticipated to the extent that the adverse effects of changes in economic policy of the United States take to materialize.
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“The external environment remains complex and continues to raise relevant risks. The change in economic policy by our main commercial partner could not only contribute to the growth rate being limited, but also could generate additional effects whose magnitude, temporality and duration are highly uncertain,” he said.
The most protectionist position by the United States represents a persistent risk that could affect economic activity in both countries, he warned.
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