With an average sinking of 10 to 30 centimeters per year, Mexico City will have “uninhabitable” areas and will be forced to “forced displacements” in less than 10 years to be able to deal with floods and lack of water, geologists of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) alerted.
The population density in the metropolis that causes an “irrational” extraction of water from underground wells, added to the weight of the constructions, make the clay and volcanic compaction of the soil reached the limit of its capacity, which causes a subsidy (gradual sinking of the land) that reaches up to 40 centimeters per year in some colonies of the city.
The most obvious example of this situation is the iconic monument to the Angel of Independence, to whom “every certain years have to add a step” due to the descent of the terrain that supports it, explains Sergio Rodríguez, a geologist of the UNAM.
“With an average sinking of 15 to 30 centimeters per year, if you multiply it for 10 years, it is already three meters and if you multiply by 100, it is incredible,” says Rodríguez.
“This is the point of no return. There is no way to stop this process,” says Wendy Morales, a geologist at UNAM, who points out that “two things can happen”: that governments and the population adapt, which would increase the degrees of marginalization; or that forced displacements occur to other areas of the country.
70% flood
Located on an old lake from which the Mexican city of Tenochtitlan emerged, 70% of the land of Mexico City is considered flood.
An increasingly common situation during the rainy season (from June to October) due to the sinking of the city, the lack of permeability of a soil covered with asphalt and without green areas, and the pursuit of rivers that crossed the city and served as a natural drainage system.
In mayors such as Iztapalapa, in the south of the capital, with a sinking of 40 centimeters per year, floods and lack of water supply show a critical situation despite being one of the areas of the city with the greatest number of underground wells.
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A contradictory situation in which the accumulation of rain contrasts with the lack of supply, as a result of an “inequitable distribution of water” that makes visible the social inequality of the capital of the country.
“Those who take out the water from the wells are the ones that have no supply and are also those who suffer floods and subscription. It is a social paradox that is presented as an issue to analyze,” Rodriguez reflects.
In contrast, new buildings of up to 50 plants “will never have water lack problems, because they pay a lot for that,” says Morales.
The future is here
The “voracity” of real estate developers, who build in high -risk areas of sinking and flooding, and increasingly extreme climatic episodes, will make Mexico City have areas that cannot be inhabited, experts warn.
“People and governments will have to start looking for adaptation measures so that the population has the minor impacts and can return to their daily lives,” explains the geologist.
If not, a part of the people will have to go outside the city in about six years, “because it will be unsustainable,” Vaticina Morales.
“The only possible future is to deconcentrate (…). Making new cities or new urban centers more planned where there are employment, hospitals, schools, community centers and thus begin to decentralize this city,” says Rodríguez.
For this, geologists underline the importance of the informal economy as the engine of the growth of these new settlements and the need to transfer the industry and institutions outside the capital.
With EFE information.
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