Mexico faces a “very big risk” of losing the measles elimination certification in February 2026, a recognition granted by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) when a region demonstrates the interruption of virus transmission for twelve months, warned epidemiologist and vaccination specialist Rodrigo Romero.
In an interview with EFE, the expert explained that, to maintain accreditation, the country must not register sustained infections until next February, a scenario that today seems distant after the outbreak that began in Chihuahua in February 2025, which accumulates more than five thousand confirmed cases of measles and twenty-three deaths.
“The certification is lost when twelve months pass with active transmission in the region. If we reach February with new cases, we will lose it, and infections continue to increase,” warned Romero, coordinator of the Mexican Association of Vaccinology.
The specialist attributed the crisis to a “perfect storm” caused by more than a decade of weakening of the national immunization program.
“There has been a lack of attention since at least 2012, with gradual drops in coverage not only of the triple viral (measles, rubella and mumps), but also of the hexavalent, pneumococcus, HPV and others,” he stated.
Added to the above are recurring problems with the supply and distribution of vaccines, the interruption of campaigns due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the growth of anti-vaccine narratives that “gained strength and generated doubts that distance the population from the schemes,” said the epidemiologist.
Romero stressed that the low perception of risk has also worked against it. “Vaccination is a victim of its own success. Since we no longer see preventable diseases, we think that they are not serious or that vaccines are not necessary. And that is not the case,” he insisted.
Although the Government has indicated that the outbreak originated from an imported case, Romero clarified that this is not unusual.
“There will always be imported cases; the important thing is to have sufficient coverage to prevent them from turning into outbreaks. That did not happen: the virus reached an area with a high proportion of susceptible people and expanded,” he stressed.
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Mexico could lose its measles elimination certification
Recent studies reveal worrying gaps: seroprevalence analyzes with more than 10,000 samples found that people from 0 to 50 years old do not have the necessary protection.
The exact cause is still being investigated, but two hypotheses are proposed: low historical coverage and lack of immune reinforcement due to prolonged absence of the virus in new generations.
Given this scenario, the Government recommended vaccinating everyone from 6 months to 50 years old, a strategy that, according to Romero, is urgent, but insufficient if the immunization system is not rebuilt.
“Mexico had one of the best vaccination programs in the world. Today it is no longer. Can we recover it? Yes, but it will not happen overnight. It requires years of constant work and coordination,” he acknowledged.
Although losing certification would not imply economic or commercial sanctions, it would send a warning signal.
“It’s not a stigma, it’s a warning. If we don’t act, other diseases could return behind measles: polio, rubella, diphtheria,” the specialist warned.
Brazil, Romero recalled, went through a similar situation and had to deploy intensive actions to recover the status.
The expert called on the population to get immunized and verify schemes, and for those who doubt, “approach reliable scientific sources.” “An unresolved doubt can end in illness, complication or death, and we are talking about completely preventable conditions,” he emphasized.
By insisting that responsibility is shared, Romero pointed out that everyone must take responsibility “it is not just the Government, nor just the health personnel or the families. If we want the program to work, we must all participate,” he concluded.
With information from EFE
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