The 2026 economic package proposes that the country’s public debt exceed for the first time the ceiling of the 20 billion pesos, which will mean that each Mexican will carry a record debt equivalent to 151,000 pesos, according to an analysis of Mexico evaluates.
The Research Center said that this indebtedness will not be reflected in a higher health, education or safety expense, and that in reality, extra money will mainly serve to pay interest in the past debt and to support Pemex, whose support will reach at 2026 the 263.4 billion pesos, 87% more against this year.
The Treasury estimated a broad deficit (the so -called public sector financial requirements) of 4.1% of GDP by 2026, exceeding 3.9% approved in 2025, which will lead to the balance of public debt at its highest level in history: 52.3% of GDP.
However, the organization said, if the economy grows at a rate of 1.4%, as analysts and IMF, the debt would rise up to 53.4%.
Mexico evaluated that the interest payment of the debt will go from 3.8% in 2025 to 4.1% of GDP (11,696 pesos per person), the largest amount since 1991.
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He explained that from each weight that the Government asks next year, only 61 cents will apply them to investment projects: “The golden rule is that all the debt is used for productive purposes, but is far from being fulfilled.”
Key dependencies and sectors for citizens do not show significant increases. Education remains at 2.9%, health at 2.5% and national security and police in 0.5% of GDP. These sectors will have less expense than in previous years in real terms.
Meanwhile, investment in infrastructure projected by 2026 is 2.5% of GDP, 10% higher than what approved in 2025 but less than the average of 3.1% of GDP observed between 2013 and 2023: “This despite investment in passenger trains.”
The projected physical investment for 2026, 26% corresponds to Pemex and 74% for the rest of public investment. It is the least physical investment for Pemex since 2007 and the second lower physical investment for the federal government since 2019.
Hacienda foresaw that the economy will grow 2.3% in 2026, but private analysts such as the International Monetary Fund expect only 1.4%.
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A minor expansion than projected, will imply less income (and unexpected cuts).
Mexico evaluated added that although a record collection of 5.8 billion pesos is anticipated for the update of taxes such as IEPS, the exclusive income of the federal government (not counting what PEMEX, CFE or IMSS contributes will not increase because a larger part of the oil income will remain in the company.
In 2026, the oil company will retain 81% of those resources, leaving the Federation with just 19%, the lowest proportion in history.
Winning and loser dependencies in 2026
The Ministry of Energy is the winning agency with an increase of 124,300 MDP, equivalent to 86.9% compared to 2025, for greater support for Pemex.
IMSS-Bienestar health services arises as a new branch and has an increase of 172,400 MDP, but its resources were in the entities not sectorized in 2025.
In percentage, the budget of the Ministry of Energy (86.9%) and the Digital Transformation Agency and Telecommunications (23.7%) grew.
On the other hand, the unsecured entities had a 95.3% cut because one of its main components (IMSS-Bienestar health services) was configured as an independent bouquet, and in the case of the INE the cut was 18.3%.
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