The Mexican economy will have a deeper slowdown in the second semester of 2025 in the face of global uncertainty, according to the general director of Banco Santander Mexico, Felipe García Ascencio.
“Today we see nothing very alarming, much less, but we do think that the second half of the year there can be a little more marked deceleration, than what we saw in this first half,” he said.
“In Mexico, a slowdown begins to be seen, but it has also been not very marked and is very light,” he reiterated in the framework of the launch of a SME program in the Ministry of Economy.
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In this context of international uncertainty and with the United States as a key actor, the director estimated that the national economy will grow between 0% and 0.5% this year, while its previous expectation was a contraction of 0.2%.
He added that the deceleration “will see a little more” in the second semester, by virtue of the decisions that have not been made in recent months due to the uncertainty of tariffs.
He said that the Mexican economy still has relatively high levels of employment and quite controlled inflation.
Also, and despite the general doubts, the director of Santander in the country said that the appetite for credit remains in force in Mexico.
“There is still a lot of demand for consumer credit, car, mortgages, companies. So, the truth is that people with optimism that can repair their loans, in some branches, very few, we do begin to see some deterioration, but it is still very, very light,” he said.
He declared that the dialogue between Mexico and the United States is good to try to improve some of the commercial terms in the steel sector.
“I understand that we are in accordance with minor rates to which they had previously talked, so I think all this is very good,” he said.
He said that economic data in the United States have not been so bad, and that consumer spending and companies have deteriorated the environment and expectations, but macro data, inflation and employment remain quite solid.
“Today the probability of a recession in the United States is 30 percent, according to experts in the United States,” he said.
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He said that the United States negotiates with China so “if that goes well, I think it will also be positive for the market.”
In April, the Government of Claudia Sheinbaum reviewed its edition of economic growth by 2025 to a range of 1.5% and 2.3%, for “the uncertainty about the commercial policy of the United States”, as a consequence of the tariff war promoted by President Donald Trump.
With EFE information
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