An analysis by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Market Intelligence projected Mexico as the country with the lowest growth in 2026 among the six largest Latin American economies, given the uncertainty due to the “critical” review of the Agreement with the United States and Canada (TMEC), which mitigated the drive for ‘nearshoring’ (investment relocation).
“Despite optimism about nearshoring, Mexico will face a challenging 2026,” the financial analysis platform warned in a statement.
According to the report ‘The era of agility: key issues that will shape Latin America in 2026’, Mexico “will have the slowest export growth among the six main economies in Latin America”, the so-called ‘LatAm-6’ (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile and Colombia).
The country will be “affected by global uncertainty and trade restrictions,” according to analysts who identified the main factors that will mark the economic and strategic outlook for the region next year.
“For Mexico, the renegotiation of the USMCA and the trade dynamics with the United States will be crucial, presenting both risks and the need for agile adaptation,” he remarked.
This review, scheduled for mid-2026, “will likely incorporate stricter rules of origin, with the aim of attracting more segments of the supply chain to North America, which will imply adjustments for the domestic industry,” indicated S&P Global Market Intelligence.
You may be interested: Mexico achieves a trade surplus of 663 million dollars in November
In addition to this, the analysis also warns that the persistence of inflation in services would keep interest rates high, making credit more expensive and limiting economic growth.
Furthermore, although Mexico has become an investment hub for data centers, the high water consumption of these facilities could cause social and legal tensions in areas affected by drought.
“These findings suggest that 2026 will be a year of strategic adjustments for Mexico, where agility to adapt to new commercial realities and internal challenges will be essential,” he concluded.
However, at the end of 2025, official figures show a good pace in Mexican exports.
Mexico registered a trade surplus of $663 million in November 2025, driven by an annual increase of 7.9% in exports, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported this Tuesday.
In the penultimate month of the year, total exports rose 7.9% to 56,412 million dollars, the result of a 10.5% growth in non-oil sales and a 40.4% contraction in oil sales.
Non-oil exports grew 8.5% to the US and 20.9% to the rest of the world.
With information from EFE.
Follow the information on the economy and finances in our specialized section
