Americans voted Nov. 4 in the first major election to determine whether Republicans can hold together the coalition of voters that propelled Donald Trump to the White House in November 2024. The result was a triumph for the Democratic Party.
Trump was not directly on the ballot in any of these races, the most notable of which were those for mayor of New York City and governor of Virginia and New Jersey. However, each race was interpreted, to a greater or lesser extent, as a referendum on the president and the direction his party took.
American politics is highly nationalized. This means that the results of local and state elections are often heavily influenced by voters’ perceptions of the national political situation. This is often frustrating for local politicians.
In New Jersey, for example, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli frequently complained that his Democratic opponent, Mikie Sherrill, was trying to turn the recent race into a referendum on the president, rather than basing the campaign on the relative merits of his own proposals.
“If you get a flat tire on the way home tonight, you’ll blame President Trump,” Ciattarelli told voters at numerous campaign rallies. In the end, Sherrill won by 13%.
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Trump’s Republican coalition is cracking
None of the major races decided on Nov. 4 took place in states commonly considered “swing states,” those that both Democrats and Republicans could reasonably win and that typically decide the outcome of presidential elections. But this does not mean that we cannot learn anything from them.
The nationalization of American politics means that voters with similar demographic characteristics—for example, their race or whether they live in the suburbs or rural areas—tend to vote similarly in different states. If a party improves its performance in the New Jersey suburbs, the same is likely to happen in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
In this sense, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York City was the least surprising news of the night. New York having its first Muslim mayor is a historic milestone, and Mamdani’s achievement excited many. However, Democrats tend to dominate in urban areas, and he was no exception.
Republicans will be much more concerned about what happened elsewhere. In both Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats won by double-digit margins, and they did so by winning back groups that abandoned them in the 2024 presidential election.
In 2024, Republicans were delighted to have gained ground among Hispanic voters. Many saw it as evidence that his party was broadening its appeal beyond the white voters who make up its core base. But in the recent elections, those gains appear to have faded.
Sherrill, a moderate Democrat who generated nowhere near as much enthusiasm as Mamdani, scored her biggest victories in Passaic and Hudson counties, two of the most Hispanic areas in New Jersey. Abigail Spanberger made similar gains in Virginia.
Suburban voters, often crucial to winning presidential elections, also abandoned Republicans in large numbers. Spanberger won Henrico County, Virginia, a large suburban area of Richmond, with 40% of the vote. This was the largest Democratic victory in county history.
Also read: Elections in New York: Zohran Mamdani wins and describes it as a ‘mandate for change’
Some caveats
These results are excellent news for Democrats and exceeded most observers’ expectations before election night. Taken together, they seem to indicate that the coalition that gave Republicans victory in 2024 is falling apart.
But it is not yet time for the possible Democratic candidates for the presidency in 2028 to claim victory. These results reflect a recent trend in American politics, in which Republicans had difficulty winning the so-called midterm elections, those in which the presidency is not chosen.
In his ten years on the political scene, Trump transformed the Republican Party by broadening his appeal among less-educated white voters, young voters and, to some extent, voters of color.
But these are also groups less likely to vote than the average American. Consequently, getting them to vote when Trump is not on the ballot is a goal that Republicans have not been able to achieve. Therefore, we must be cautious with the conclusions we draw from these results.
At the very least, we can safely say that the results of the recent elections suggest that Democrats can expect to perform well in the 2026 midterm elections. This gives them the opportunity to win back one or both chambers of Congress and serve as a counterweight to Trump’s agenda.
For their part, Republicans have to reflect deeply. The Constitution prevents Trump from seeking a third term in 2028. Unless some other Republican manages to replicate Trump’s appeal to casual voters, all indications are that his party will struggle even in presidential election years.
Much also depends on Trump’s policies in the coming years. Clearly, voters are fed up with the lack of progress in lowering the cost of living, the brutality of immigration raids, and the corruption and chaos many perceive under this administration.
Voter sentiment on these issues is unlikely to change unless Trump changes course. The question, given his political style and personality, is whether he can do it, or even wants to.
*Andrew Gawthorpe is Professor of History and International Studies at Leiden University.
This text was originally published in The Conversation
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