The effective tariff rate that the United States applies to Mexican exports stood at 7.5%, after the increase in products aligned with the rules of the Agreement between Mexico-United States-Canada (USMCA), according to the most recent update of the tariff tracker of the economic consulting firm Moody’s Analytics.
This percentage represents a decrease compared to the 13.4% rate that the consulting firm had forecast in August.
Moody’s specified that this adjustment is based on the fact that around 85% of Mexican merchandise enters US soil under the provisions of the USMCA. This level of compliance implies an increase of 48% over the recent historical average.
Likewise, the firm explained that this growth is linked to greater flexibility in US customs regarding the control of exports from Mexico.
Read: Marcelo Ebrard says that Mexico must have a ‘cohesive position’ in reviewing the USMCA
The analysis indicated that alignment with the USMCA reduces the possible impact of the announced 25% tariffs on medium and heavy trucks, which are scheduled to come into force in early November, due to increased compliance with the treaty’s rules for auto parts.
Despite this improvement, Moody’s anticipates that President Trump could raise the effective rate (currently at 7.5%) between 0.5 and 1 percentage point to gain greater influence in the USMCA negotiations, whose review is planned for 2026.
“An effective tariff rate of 9% would represent a significant reduction with respect to our October base forecast and would leave Mexico at an advantage over other large US trading partners such as the European Union, South Korea and Japan,” the report indicated.
In 10 days, the Trump administration’s last 90-day tariff extension on goods from Mexico will end.
With information from EFE
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