Moody’s Ratings pointed out that external uncertainty such as President Trump’s tariffs and the Remittance Tax puts Mexico’s credit qualification at risk, while leaving between the growth of the Mexican economy by pointing out that it can be close to 0%.
In an interview in the North Economic Podcast, the Banorte firm, the Vice President and Analyst for Mexico of the Agency, Renzo Merino, highlighted these issues among the risks from the external environment.
He said that from the perspective of the sovereign qualification, which in Moody’s is from the BAA2 level, that is, two steps within what is known as the investment grade and with a negative perspective, since November it is considered that “these external risk factors are fundamental for what could lead to a possible scenario of the reduction of the qualification”.
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In the issue of tariffs, he said that “it has generated a lot of uncertainty because in the already more than 100 days of the Trump administration there have been many swings in terms of the application of tariff policy.”
He explained that the main result of these policy changes “is that they generate uncertainty” and in the case of Mexico in exports, which are very important to the United States, being their main commercial partner. He also pointed out that there is concern about more long -term investment decisions.
“While we consider that economic growth this year will be relatively low, in the case of Mexico, probably close to 0%, what we are considering is what would be the growth rate for the Mexican economy in the coming years,” said Merino.
On the possible remittance tax, Merino recalled that in the context of Latin America, “they are very relevant to Central American economies and also for Mexico although perhaps in lesser instance.”
On Tuesday, BBVA Mexico adjusted down its growth forecast for the Mexican economy in 2025 by anticipating a contraction of 0.4%, especially due to internal uncertainty and the impact of US tariffs.
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In the presentation of the ‘Mexico’ situation in the Mexican capital, the financial entity also anticipated a recovery in 2026, with a growth of 1.2%.
This projection coincides with that of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which anticipates a 0.3% drop by 2025 and a 1.4% rebound the following year.
With EFE information
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