Tabasco had the worst performance in formal employment generation during 2024, closing the year with a loss of 12.2%, according to an analysis by BBVA México published this Tuesday.
The financial group indicated that although the entity’s contribution to formal employment at the national level is barely 1%, the local impact has been significant, bringing Tabasco to an employment level similar to that of October 2021.
BBVA México attributed the decline largely to the conclusion of public investment projects in infrastructure, whose momentum has been gradually fading.
“Given current conditions, it is highly likely that formal employment will continue to deteriorate in the short term,” he stated in his employment report.
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On the contrary, the State of Mexico, Nuevo León and Jalisco contributed eight out of every 10 formal jobs generated, which places them as the main drivers of formal employment in the year.
The State of Mexico and Jalisco stood out for registering some of the highest annual growth rates.
Hidalgo, Guerrero and Chiapas also showed relevant growth rates, but their total contribution to the generation of formal jobs is lower compared to the first mentioned states.
BBVA stated that formal employment in Mexico closed 2024 with only 213 thousand new jobs according to IMSS data, an annual increase of 1%, well below expectations.
He indicated that the figure is only equivalent to 28.9% of the average of the last three years, which reflects a marked slowdown in the generation of formal employment and is the lowest figure since 2010, excluding 2020, the year of the pandemic.
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He noted that the slowdown in formal job creation can be attributed to internal and external factors.
Among the internal ones, the impact of judicial reform on investment stood out, while in the external sphere, the prolonged contraction of the manufacturing sector in the United States during the past year stands out, as well as the risks associated with the incoming Trump administration.
BBVA recalled that the Republican has announced measures that could affect the labor market in both countries.
To the above, the financial group added the lack of clear perspectives for the reactivation of public investment in infrastructure, a key sector for boosting employment, particularly in construction.
He added that in the manufacturing field, the outlook continues to be conditioned by the evolution of this industry in the United States, which in the face of contractionary measures (reduction in public spending and increase in tax revenue) could continue to weaken the sector.
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Given this context of uncertainty and structural challenges, employment growth in 2025 is expected to remain weak.
He detailed that the construction sector, which accounts for 7.7% of the country’s total employment, extended its negative trend in job creation by closing the year with a drop of 6.3%.
On the other hand, the manufacturing sector, the main generator of formal employment, practically stagnated with interannual rates that averaged just 0.3% and with an annual close of 0.2%.
“This performance greatly slowed down the creation of formal jobs, and given the prevailing uncertainty, it is likely that stagnation will persist in the coming months,” he predicted.
Highlights real salary and real salary mass
BBVA México reported that the real salary and the real salary mass of IMSS affiliates have grown above their historical averages (2001-2018), with the real salary mass closing the year with an annual variation of 5.8% and the real salary with a growth of 4.8%.
However, he noted that after reaching higher levels well above the average in 2022-23, both indicators show a clear trend of moderation and deceleration, in line with the lower job creation and slightly attenuated by the slowdown in the economy.
inflation.
He opined that given this recent evolution, the outlook points to less dynamism in the coming months, driven by less favorable macroeconomic conditions and prospects for weaker employment generation.
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