Personal Finance

Mortgage Rates Today, Monday, March 16: Rates (and Oil Prices) are on the Rise

16 March 2026

Mortgage rates continue to creep up amid soaring oil prices and low expectations for a Fed rate cut.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.22% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 12 basis points higher than Friday and 23 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Mortgage rates have been trending up so far this month, since the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran at the end of February. Analysts expected that the attack would lead to rising oil prices, potentially pushing up inflation. While this seems to be playing out as expected, we won’t get a true measure of the impact on inflation until next month, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases inflation data for March.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

📉 When will mortgage rates drop?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

This week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Central bankers at the Fed are scheduled to meet tomorrow and Wednesday, when they’re widely expected to keep the federal funds rate as-is in the face of economic uncertainty. (The federal funds rate indirectly influences mortgage rates.) The Fed is tasked with balancing inflation with the employment situation, which looks weaker than expected: February’s jobs report showed the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs last month, compared to a projected gain of 50,000.

Meanwhile, we got two major inflation reports last week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation remained steady in February at 2.4%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (CPE) — the Fed’s preferred measure — showed core inflation at 2.8% and signs of weaker consumer spending in January.

After attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, nervous markets have already sent oil prices surging. When oil supply drops, unemployment and inflation can go up — rippling through the economy to disrupt those steady near-6% mortgage rates we’d all gotten accustomed to since January.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.72% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.