As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second inauguration in January, a majority of investors are optimistic on his impact on the U.S. economy, according to the latest CNBC Delivering Alpha Stock Survey. In all, 71% participants in the survey think Trump “will be great for the economy and markets,” while 29% disagreed with that sentiment, the survey found. Respondents were also optimistic on his policies and the development of artificial intelligence, with 57% saying they trust how Trump and his appointees will handle this technology. Tariffs emerged as a key theme for the incoming administration. Participants in CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Stock Survey were split 50-50 on whether the duties will help or hinder the U.S. economy, American workers and consumers. Indeed, during his campaign, Trump called for tariffs exceeding 60% on China goods. Last month, he also vowed to impose an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods, as well as 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Trump has already been active in selecting people to serve in key posts throughout the government. He has also closely aligned himself with Elon Musk , CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. When asked whether Musk is a “good influence,” 36% of respondents said, “for sure.” An equal amount said they were “not so sure,” while 28% said, “no way.” CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Stock Survey, which is issued quarterly, last week polled about 40 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and other money managers. The backdrop for stocks in 2025 Small-cap stocks emerged as the preferred asset class going into 2025, the poll found, with nearly 30% of participants choosing the category. The Russell 2000 is up almost 12% in 2024. The small-cap benchmark is lagging the S & P 500 , which has risen more than 26% year to date. The Nasdaq Composite has surged 33% in the period. Fourteen percent of those polled highlighted “big-cap tech” as their favored asset class going into the new year, and a similar percentage pointed to the broad market S & P 500 as the best place to be in 2025. Bitcoin, Chinese stocks, Indian stocks and private markets each garnered 7% of the vote. .NDX .IXIC,.DJI,.SPX,.RUT YTD line The Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Dow Industrials, S & P 500 and the small-cap Russell 2000 picked up ground in 2024 The S & P 500 tech sector closed at a record on Tuesday, rising as Apple touched an all-time high in the Christmas Eve session. So far, the tech sector is up more than 40% this year. The “Magnificent Seven” – Apple, Amazon , Alphabet , Meta Platforms , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla – played a big role in the market’s advance in 2024. When asked whether those megacap tech names or “the other 493 S & P 500 stocks” will fare better in 2025, 77% of those polled in the CNBC Delivering Alpha Stock Survey said the rest of the broad market would outperform. In all, 23% said the Magnificent Seven will continue their dominance. AAPL AMZN,GOOGL YTD line Apple, Amazon and Alphabet are all near highs. Software stocks and semiconductors, both beneficiaries from 2024’s AI-driven advance, were also in focus. The SPDR S & P Software & Services ETF (XSW) is up more than 29% year to date, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has surged nearly 44%. Seventy-one percent of respondents think that the trend will reverse in the new year, with software names outperforming chip stocks. Bitcoin in 2025 and emerging trends The flagship cryptocurrency surged to record levels this year, eclipsing the $108,000 mark at one point in December. But 57% of the participants in the CNBC Delivering Alpha Stock Survey say bitcoin is more likely to revert to $50,000, versus hitting the $200,000 mark. Some 43% believe the cryptocurrency has a greater chance of hitting the $200,000 threshold as opposed to sliding to $50,000. Participants seemed to shy away from crypto-mining stocks, at least in the upcoming year: Zero respondents said these names were a good place to invest. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin surged to new records this year. They were more upbeat on other corners of the market, however. Sixty-four percent said that cybersecurity names would be a good place to invest, while 36% pointed to stocks that were related to artificial intelligence. While enthusiasm around the ” weight loss trade ” helped lift Eli Lilly to a 36% gain in 2024, sentiment around the space seems to be cooling. None of the survey respondents think it’s a good idea to put money into GLP-1 plays. Indeed, Lilly — which manufactures Zepbound — and Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk are off 18% and 41% from their respective highs.
