NFL discussing deal with Paramount that could be extra $1 billion

The NFL and Paramount Skydance‘s renewal talks on a deal to keep the league’s Sunday games on CBS are beginning to take shape, CNBC has learned.

NFL and CBS executives are negotiating a price increase, with a bid-ask spread midpoint around 50% or 60%, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private. CBS currently pays around $2.1 billion a year, on average, for its Sunday afternoon games, CNBC has previously reported. A 50% increase would mean CBS would pay more than $3 billion in its next deal.

In return for the increased revenue, the NFL would eliminate the opt-out clause after the 2029-30 season that it put in its original deal with Paramount, part of an 11-year agreement that runs through the end of the 2033-34 season. That clause would have given the league the chance to walk away early.

CBS would begin paying the new fee as soon as next season for the next eight years for the same package of games.

Paramount’s adjusted projection for its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for 2026 is $3.6 billion. If Paramount’s merger with Warner Bros. Discovery is approved by regulators, the combined company would have an adjusted EBITDA projection of $18 billion, Paramount Chief Financial Officer Dennis Cinelli told investors this month.

“We have a phenomenal relationship with the NFL, and we anticipate that continuing for the foreseeable future,” Paramount CEO David Ellison told CNBC earlier this month. “They are one of our most important partners, and we plan for them to stay one of our most important partners, having just delivered a historic season in partnership with them. And, you know, ongoing negotiations, we’re not really in a position where we can comment. I promise we’ll share something as soon as we have something to say.”

Comcast‘s NBCUniversal, Amazon Prime Video and Fox are also subject to the 2029-30 opt-out clause in their deals. Disney‘s ESPN and ABC have until 2031.

The league has chosen to begin negotiating with Paramount’s CBS before any of its other media partners because a change-of-control provision — stemming from Skydance Media’s acquisition of Paramount Global — allows the NFL to break its deal by 2027.

The NFL might negotiate with Fox next after CBS because the terms of the deal should be similar — both companies own Sunday afternoon packages, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

Fox currently pays slightly more than CBS for its package of games — about $2.2 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. Fox will “certainly look to [be] continuing that mutually beneficial relationship going forward” with the NFL, but it hasn’t had any “material conversations” on a renewal yet, CEO Lachlan Murdoch said earlier this month at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference.

The NFL also hasn’t begun material discussions with Amazon, NBC or Disney, according to people familiar with the matter. It’s unclear if the league would look to push forward with a similar 50% increase for all three of those packages.

Some executives at NBC and at Disney believe the relative strengths of their packages — Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football — have diminished as the NFL has given Amazon better games for its Thursday Night Football in recent years, according to people familiar with the matter.

ESPN already pays $2.7 billion for Monday Night Football. A 50% increase would mean ESPN would pay more than $4 billion for that package — a number Disney would likely balk at, according to people familiar with the matter.

The timing and scope of the NFL’s new deals could have a significant effect on the value of other sports’ rights in the coming years.

The NHL currently has TV deals with Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery, which expire after the 2028 season. Bettman has had a number of conversations about renewing a deal before the NFL, according to two people familiar with the matter. Still, he will likely have to wait until Paramount’s deal to acquire WBD closes before inking a new agreement.

“As with an ongoing relationship, you’re always talking about the future, and from our standpoint it’s not in the context of the NFL,” said NHL spokesman Jon Weinstein.

Murdoch said last month Fox would have to “rebalance” its sports portfolio once it pays the NFL.

Versant CEO Mark Lazarus said earlier this month he’s “prepared for the sports landscape to be shifting” given the outsized cost of the NFL. That could allow Versant, which owns the USA Network and other cable channels, to buy rights to sports such as the NHL or MLB “that we might not have otherwise gotten involved with,” he said.

Disclosure: Versant is the parent company of CNBC.