By José Roberto Balmori*
The end of 2025 shows an anemic economic performance. We closed the year with a modest growth of just 0.3%, a figure that contrasts with the substantial increase in public debt. This meager expansion, lower than population growth, directly translates into a reduction in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, a clear indicator that average material well-being has contracted. Unfortunately, future projections do not offer a much more optimistic outlook.
Even before starting the new year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised downwards its growth forecast for 2026, placing it at 1.2%. This adjustment is significant, since it represents half of what has been budgeted in the Economic Package of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) for 2026. However, the figure offered by the OECD aligns with the expectations of private analysts surveyed by Citi, who project a growth of 1.4%.
In contrast, the OECD improved the outlook for the United States, whose economy is expected to expand by 1.7% in 2026 (0.3 percentage points more than the previous estimate). This divergence is crucial: While our main trading partner accelerates, the cut in the Mexican forecast suggests a cooling of the engines driven by the domestic market.
The main factor of concern lies in private investment, the fundamental driver of growth. Investment plummeted to 22% of GDP by the end of 2025, well below the 24% threshold considered necessary to generate sustained economic expansion. The year-on-year drop in private investment, close to 7% during the year, reflects a palpable deterioration in the business climate.
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Sensitive issues such as judicial reform, modifications to the Amparo Law and the debate in the Supreme Court of Justice on the review of cases already judged, have generated a feeling of legal vulnerability that slows down the decision of many investors. If we add to the fall in private investment the significant cuts in public investment, which are around 32%, the outlook for capital formation becomes deeply disturbing.
In the workplace, the situation is equally complex. Despite the increase in the total number of employees, this growth is concentrated in low productivity sectors. In 2025, an alarming increase in informal employment was observed at the expense of formal employment. This transition directly translates into a decline in labor productivity, which erodes the economy’s ability to generate sustainable growth.
Although the wage bill has grown, it is not managing to boost the necessary productivity. Consequently, the labor factor, like capital, is failing as a lever of economic development.
Finally, the factor of insecurity continues to be a burden that directly impacts the profitability of companies. The recent protests by transporters and agricultural producers over constant extortion show a worrying phenomenon of rent extraction by criminal organizations. This high-risk environment for employers and workers represents a cocktail of challenges that will require sustained effort and effective public policies to be reversed.
About the author:
*Jose Balmori-de-la-Miyar is Director of the undergraduate programs of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the Universidad Anáhuac México.
X: @jrbalmori
The opinions expressed are solely the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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