Jensen Huang, president and CEO of Nvidia, attends the 56th annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 21, 2026.
Denis Balibouse | Reuters
It’s been a tough start to the year for technology investors. Shares of seven of the eight trillion-dollar tech companies have notched losses so far.
The lone exception is Nvidia. The chipmaker’s stock is up 2.7% in 2026 as of Monday’s close, while the Nasdaq has dropped more than 2.5%. Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla have all seen double-digit declines.
Heading into Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report Wednesday, Wall Street has a pretty clear idea of where the company stands. That’s because its biggest customers announced results a few weeks ago and told investors that their mammoth spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure is only going to increase.
“Hyperscale capex forecasts for CY2026 have exceeded prior expectations,” analysts at Wedbush Securities wrote in a Monday note previewing Nvidia’s earnings. “With servers and AI infrastructure representing the bulk of forward spend, we expect growth in AI investment will somewhat exceed overall capex trends.”
Like over 90% of firms tracked by FactSet, Wedbush analysts recommend buying Nvidia shares. They have a $230 price target on the stock, which is 20% above Monday’s close.
Nvidia, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, now gets roughly 90% of its revenue from its data center business, which houses the graphics processing units, or GPUs, and AI systems used to train and run most large language models. As tech giants build massive new data centers to meet soaring demand, they’re packing those facilities with Nvidia’s latest and greatest products.
Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are expected to spend nearly $700 billion combined this year to fuel their AI expansion, according to their latest forecasts and analyst estimates. The four hyperscalers are projected to increase capital expenditures by more than 60% from the historic levels reached in 2025.
While all that spending is unquestionably positive for Nvidia, there are plenty of skeptics who fear that the tech industry is overbuilding, and that any slowdown or softness will have an outsized effect on the dominant chipmaker.
“The story is so unbelievably simple, yet at the same time quite complex today,” wrote analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald in a report last week. The analysts, who have an outperform rating on the stock, said that despite “insatiable” demand for computing power and an “extremely positive” setup for Nvidia results, “investor concerns remain, headlined by fears of peaking hyperscale” capex this year.
Analysts on average expect Nvidia to report a 68% revenue jump to $66 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, according to LSEG. For the April quarter, they see year-over-year growth of 63% to $72 billion.
Excitement is building for the upcoming release of Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin rack-scale systems later this year. CEO Jensen Huang said in October that 6 million Blackwell GPUs had been shipped in the past four quarters, and that Nvidia expects $500 billion in GPU sales between the Blackwell generation and the forthcoming Rubin chips.
Investors will be listening closely for commentary surrounding the rollout of Vera Rubin systems as they look to gauge demand for the rest of 2026 and beyond.
Another key topic for Huang and management to address is Groq.
Wednesday’s earnings call will be the first since Nvidia purchased assets from the chip startup in late December for about $20 billion. With the deal, Groq founder and CEO Jonathan Ross along with Sunny Madra, the company’s president, and other senior leaders joined Nvidia.
Groq’s specialty is on the inference side of the market, which refers to the use of AI to make decisions based on new information. Nvidia dominates the training piece of the market, which involves teaching AI models to learn from patterns in large amounts of data. Analysts will be looking for clarity on the impact of the deal on Nvidia’s balance sheet and its strategic plans for using the technology to compete with makers of custom ASICs, or application-specific integrated circuits.
“We are looking for any hints or specifics around products we should expect from Jonathan’s team and how this acquisition will augment NVDA’s accelerator business,” the Wedbush analysts wrote. “With concerns around increased competition from ASIC solutions, in our view, being one of the greatest drags on NVDA’s performance, we believe a strong Groq related roadmap could meaningfully allay investor concerns.”
WATCH: Nvidia has very positive risk-reward into earnings
