The shrinking supply of unsold new development units caught up to the market in November.
There were 187 contracts signed at new development projects last month, down 22 percent from the same time last year, according to Marketproof’s monthly report. That drop mirrors the market segment’s fall performance, which is down roughly 21 percent year-over-year since the start of September.
Contract activity for new development pales in comparison to the city’s performance as a whole, which has surged in the last few months despite concerns over how the November election of Zohran Mamdani might deter wealthy buyers. In November, overall contracts in Manhattan rose by over 20 percent from last year, according to data from Miller Samuel.
The culprit? A contracting pool of available new units. “It’s tempting to blame muted purchase volume on the Mamdani election, but there’s no evidence for that,” Marketproof Kael Goodman said in a statement. “The simpler explanation is, inventory is low and new launches are scarce, so fewer buyers are finding what they want.”
In the second quarter of this year, Manhattan’s supply of new development condos reached a 10-year low at fewer than 3,600 unsold units, according to data previously shared with The Real Deal by Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group.
Project launches in Manhattan have been under the 10-year average for the last three years, but 2025 is shaping up to be the year when dwindling supply rears its head as buyers burn through the backlog of projects that built up around Covid.
In November, Manhattan saw 88 signed contracts, down from 125 last year. Nearly double the new units hit the market this fall compared to one year ago, but that rush followed few buildings coming to market during the spring — only 225 units, down from 511 last year, according to Marketproof.
The top-selling building in the borough has been Izaki Group’s Village West project at 525 Sixth Avenue, which scored 16 contracts in November and has already put more than half of its 68 units in contract since launching sales in September.
The borough has seen a number of notable launches in the fall, including MRR Development’s Malabar Residences at 126 East 57th Street, Related Companies’ 144-unit Upper East Side project called the Strathmore and the Flatiron Building’s hotly-anticipated conversion into 38 ultra-luxury units. But none of them has yet contributed meaningfully to the contract tally.
The metrics also continue to suffer from 80 Clarkson, the largest launch of the year, not reporting any contracts despite evidence of off-market sales.
“Everything I’ve said this year has been with an asterisk with 80 Clarkson next to it,” Goodman told The Real Deal last week.
In Brooklyn, there were 79 new development contracts signed in November, down from 110 last year.
Fall sales launches this year in Brooklyn have accounted for 172 new units entering the market, down 50 percent from last year, according to Marketproof.
In 2024, the borough launched a number of large developments, including One Domino Square and Williamsburg Wharf in North Brooklyn, which combined for a collective 249 units. The Bergen in Boerum Hill also launched its 105 units in 2024. Those buildings have often alternated among the top-performing developments in the borough through much of their early sales cycles.
By comparison, the top-selling development in November was an eight-unit converted brownstone at 503 Clinton Ave, which signed six contracts last month.
Queens also slowed in November, with 20 contracts signed compared to 30 last year. The borough had no new development launches through October, when Flushing’s Northern Center Condominium released 11 of its 135 sponsor units. In November, two boutique projects launched 13 combined units.
Last fall, Queens saw 361 new development units enter the market.
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