In 2025 the Nearshoring panorama has become complex; The initial enthusiasm to relocate supply chains towards Mexico now faces an environment marked by commercial tensions with the United States, tariff threats and the expected review of the T-MEC. These factors force companies and investors to rethink their strategies and evaluate whether the phenomenon will continue to be as profitable and safe as it seemed a couple of years ago.
The attractiveness of this trend will depend on Mexico’s ability to mitigate internal risks (infrastructure, security, energy) and anticipate the regulatory changes of the northern partner. For Todd Martínez, co-director of the Soberan Division of the Americas of Fitch Ratings, to capitalize on the Nearshoring opportunity, it is not enough to have the push factor: “Behind the phenomenon, we must also bet on the factors of attraction, such as competitiveness and institutionality.”
On the one hand, the US administration has hardened the tone against strategic imports, particularly in sectors such as steel, energy and technology. This opens the possibility of new tariffs or rules of origin that could affect the competitiveness of products manufactured in Mexico.
On the other, the review of the T-MEC could lead to higher labor, environmental or regional content demands that make production complicating the planning of long-term investments. In addition, polarization in the US Congress and the 2026 elections could redefine commercial priorities, from incentives to domestic relocation (reshoring) to more aggressive sanctions against commercial partners.
Read more: consultants, call centers and surveillance and cleaning companies evaded taxes for 151,273 million pesos in AMLO
NEARSHORING: From boom to expectations adjustment
In this context, Reshoring emerges as an alternative for certain American industries, promoted by tax incentives and the political pressure to protect local jobs, although it faces clear limits: higher labor costs and lack of capacity to absorb all the production that is currently carried out in Asia and Mexico.
Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, chief economist for emerging S&P markets Globalconfirma that, “a dynamic that will compete with Nearshoring in Mexico will be precisely reshoring in the United States. We have seen a pause in investment flows related to the relocation of companies, most likely in reaction to tariff uncertainty.”
However, not everything would be negative, geographical proximity, lower costs compared to other countries (even with tariffs) and the existing integration in North American supply chains continue to place Mexico in a difficult position to replace. There are those who are more optimistic, such as Iván Arias, director of Economic Studies Banamex, who states that “if Mexico achieves successful negotiations with the United States in the coming months, we could see an intensification of nearshoring in the country that, now, translates into a broader and more significant economic impulse.”
Nearshoring is not a guaranteed promise, but an opportunity that only those who know how to adapt to changes in the environment can make it a long -term advantage.
You may be interested: formal employment is triggered by incorporation of apps workers
