The tariffs announced and taxes by the US president, Donald Trump, have already had a negative impact on the oil market and could end up weakening the demand for energy, the OPEC warns this Wednesday in its monthly analysis.
“In the first half of the month (February), the market was pressured down as the concern for the possible impact of US tariffs on (products of) Canada, Mexico and China increased,” says the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its March report.
In fact, the energy poster indicates that investors in the sector acted cautiously given the possible consequences of this commercial policy and the reprisal measures of other states that, OPEC experts think, “could slow world economic growth and, eventually, weakens the demand for energy.”
Thus, the report indicates that between January and February the price of the WTI crude, reference in the United States, it fell 5.2%, while that of the European Brent was retracted 4.3%.
The March market report does not modify the prospects for economic growth for this year (3.1%) and by 2026 (3.2%), but indicates that in the industrial sector there are uncertainties because it is about to be seen how tariffs will affect.
“Commercial tensions in North America could affect growth in Mexico, Canada and, to a lesser extent, United States. The industrial sector, very integrated, will face great challenges to adapt to tariffs, with short -term effects, ”warns the OPEC.
Thus, although the US economy is expected to maintain its “solid growth trajectory”, inflationary pressures and large exporting tariffs add uncertainty to that perspective.
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Regarding Europe, the report indicates that US tariffs will probably have negative effects in the automotive sector, especially in Germany.
Thus, the OPEC analysis states that the “threat” (when the report was written not yet entered into force) of more tariffs by Washington “could lead to a commercial war with repercussions harmful to the European economy.”
Despite these uncertainties, the group does not modify in its analysis published today the crude oil demand forecasts, which maintains at 105.2 million barrels per day (MBD), 1.4% more than last year, or by 2026 (106.63 MBD).
China and India lead that growth and consume together in 2025 21% of the world total. The two Asian powers will burn more crude than the United States and double that all industrialized countries in Europe as a whole.
In fact, as usual, it is in that group of nations where crude oil consumption will least grow, just 0.12%.
With EFE information.
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