Almost three years from the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict remains without a clear solution, with a panorama that not only affects the nations involved, but redefines security in Europe and global geopolitical stability. The recent negotiations in Saudi Arabia, together with the controversial statements of Donald Trump about Volodimir Zelenski, have revived the debate about how and under what terms this war could end. However, beyond the immediate efforts to reach a high fire, the conflict has evidenced the need to rethink security architecture in Europe.
The war in Ukraine did not begin in 2022, it has been developed in different stages since 2014. At this time, multiple negotiation and cessation attempts have failed. Beyond Russian expansionism and Ukrainian resistance, the conflict has deep roots in the European security structure. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO and the European Union have advanced east, incorporating countries that were under the sphere of influence of Moscow. Meanwhile, Russia has been excluded from discussions on European security, which has fed its perception of threat and isolation.
While this does not justify Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova, it does help to understand why Kremlin considers that the current security order is unacceptable. The mediation and control structures that in the past mitigated tensions, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and conventional armament control treaties, have disappeared or lost relevance. The result is a system in which Europe advances in its integration without Russia, while Russia responds with aggression to avoid its own marginalization.
Donald Trump’s statements, who have described Zelenski as “dictator” and suggest that Ukraine is responsible for the war, are absolutely unacceptable and interference so they have generated rejection reactions in Europe and within the US administration itself. And, they reflect a worrying trend: the possibility that the US government is willing to negotiate with Russia without fully considering Ukrainian and European interests. Likewise, they warn about the possibility that this pattern is repeated in other regions in conflict.
The meetings in Saudi Arabia between Delegations of the United States and Russia, without the presence of Ukraine, are an indication of the prevailing need for the current United States government to advance in an alliance with Russia to outdo China in its relationship with Moscow. Although diplomacy and negotiation are essential to achieve peace, on the current horizon the fear that Washington ends up making great concessions to Russia in exchange for a temporary truce that does not solve the underlying problem but that if I emulate the rebirth of the American leadership in the international stage, feeding the Maga narrative.
It is very important to consider that any viable agreement must address fundamental issues such as Ukrainian sovereignty, the status of occupied territories, sanctions against Russia and the long -term security of the region. Without clear guarantees at these points, any negotiation runs the risk of being a superficial solution that only postpones future conflicts.
One of the proposed solutions is the neutrality of Ukraine, a commitment not to join NATO or allow alliance troops in its territory. In 2022 Istanbul negotiations, Russia showed a willingness to accept a neutral ukraine economically linked to the EU, which could be a basis for future conversations. However, this would only be viable if it was accompanied by concrete security commitments for Ukraine, something that neither NATO nor the EU have clearly defined.
Beyond Ukraine, lasting peace requires reformulating the European security system. Returning to an armament control framework similar to the missing treaty of conventional forces in Europe could help reduce tensions. A broader dialogue between the United States, Europe and Russia is also necessary to prevent conflicts in the east of the continent from being treated in terms of zero sum.
The recent approaches between Washington and Moscow have turned on alarms in Europe. If the United States changes its strategy and presses Ukraine to accept unfavorable concessions, Europe will have to assume a more active role in its own safety. This implies increasing its defense capacity and exploring alternative security guarantees for Ukraine that do not depend solely on Washington.
Without a deep review of security in the region, the war in Ukraine could become the first episode of a cycle of conflicts in other areas of Russian interest, such as Moldova or Georgia. Therefore, current negotiations should not be limited to a stop on fire, but must lay the foundations for a new security balance that prevents the story from being repeated.
Three years after the beginning of the Russian invasion, the war in Ukraine remains without a clear outcome. Beyond the ongoing negotiations and Trump’s statements, the conflict has revealed the fragility of the European security order and the need to reform it.
We are undoubtedly given the reconfiguration of the international order. Under the current distribution of power in the world, an agreement based only on tactical concessions will not be enough to guarantee peace. The solution must go beyond Ukraine and include strategic reconfiguration that prevents new conflicts and stabilizes Eastern Europe. The key question is not only how this war ends, but how to avoid next.
Contact:
Correo: (email protected)
Twitter: @ArleneRU
LinkedIn: Arlene Ramírez-Urrest
The opinions expressed are only the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and the editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
Follow business information and today in Forbes Mexico
